With the recent hiring of Urban Meyer at Ohio State, many Buckeye fans are elated at the apparent forgone conclusion of a BCS title and a return to the top of NCAA football.   While there is no doubt that the 47 year old coach has an incredible win percentage, the highest ever through the 2009 season, a deeper dive into the statistics should be enough to have Bucky a little worried.

 1.  Urban Meyer doesn’t stay in a position long – True, in this age of coaching carousels, it’s hard to keep your job long enough to have even a water fountain named after you but with Urban, the problem is one of what professional career coaches call “job hopping.”  Dating back to his high school coaching days, he is yet to stay with a program more than 6 years (which he did only once) and his average tenure as a head coach (Bowling Green, Utah & Florida)  is 3 years.  In all 3 of these positions, Meyer was able to turn average programs into winners but he has always had one distinct advantage…

 2.  Urban Meyer walks into positions ripe for winning. – Lack of game film, a substandard conference and general national ignorance of the Bowling Green program during Meyer’s tenure make it hard to do an in depth analysis of his performance at Bowling Green.  It appears his signature wins were over a middle of the pack Missouri team in 2001 and 2002.  Meyer was handed a talent laden Utah program in 2003, complete with a Heisman finalist quarterback and emerging NFL star in a (sic) down Mountain West Conference.  In similar fashion, Urban took over for one the greatest “Best Recruiter / Worst Coach” dichotomies of all time in Ron Zook at Florida.  With a locker room full of more talent than that of the Dallas Cowboy’s cheerleaders, had Meyer only filled out the roster card and left each game at kickoff, he’d likely enjoyed 10 win seasons.  Picking up a commitment from lifelong Gator fan Tim Tebow within 18 months of his start date didn’t hurt as long as he could keep the 5 star, Parade All American quarterback Chris Leak happy about it.

 3.  Meyer’s use of the spread offense is unparalleled…it’s also old news – If there is one thing to be jaw droppingly impressed about with Urban Meyer, it’s his use and perfection of the spread offense.  Athleticism alone did not win national titles, his offensive genius had allot to do with it.  With that said, it’s no longer novel and he’s no longer in the “speed state” of Florida.  While he will certainly recruit top talent at OSU (a team that was a full step slower than his Gators) running a spread in the Big 10 will be exciting until they meet the majority of the power teams of the South or a high level West Coast team. Furthermore, the majority of BCS level teams see a spread offense no less than once every 3 games.  While he may run it to perfection, the surprise factor will definitely be gone. 

4.  Meyer has a mess to clean up – Meyer has never had to assume leadership of a team facing NCAA  compliance issues and history is not on his side.  The more egregious the programs sins, the longer it typically takes to recover.  While I certainly don’t compare the current OSU situation with SMU or even current day Miami or USC in regards to severity of rule breaking, self imposed sanctions plus those from the NCAA will make the ramp up time a little slower than the fast paced coach would prefer.  I’m sure someone much smarter than I in mathematics could find a formula for the average number of years it takes to be ranked in the top 5 in coloration to number of scholarships lost.  Don’t Stanford fans read college football blogs?  They should be able to write this program between homework and their next Steve Jobs / iTunes / iPhoto tribute slideshow for their Mark Zuckerburg owned Facebook page.

 I certainly hope my Buckeye readers do not misinterpret this as “hating” on Urban Meyer.  Much like Tim Tebow in the NFL, you may like him or hate him but you have to admit that all he does is win.  My only request is that those same readers take a look at the facts I’ve laid out, ponder them and let the next few years determine his legacy.  While many college football fans are ready to put Meyer among the greatest of all time, I reserve judgment and admit pessimism as to his future success.  I classify the “infamous coaches in NCAA history” into 3 categories.  The most impressive are those that dominated for a great deal of time until the game passed them by. (Bear Bryant, Tom Osbourne, Bobby Bowden, Nick Saban is almost there) The 1B class ,if you will, are coaches that rose, struggled perhaps and then were able to recover to a degree but not at the same level.  These are still great coaches but they all had shorter runs of success followed by less than ideal exits. (Lou Holtz, Steve Spurier, Jimmy Johnson)  The last class would be coaches that so many fell in love with and heralded as the next great leader until they were exposed as being at “the right place and time.”  (Phillip Fullmer, Rich Rodriguez, Pete Carrol, Nick Saban until he came back to Alabama)  I would currently put Urban Meyer in the 1B category and see his next 5 years as the pivot point into one of the other classes.  If he goes on to greatness at OSU, I’ll be first in line to carve him into the NCAA coach Mt Rushmore.  However, if things do not turn out well and the championships don’t come after he’s had the chance to rebuild, don’t say I didn’t warn you…especially if he quits in 3 years…

Week 13 wasn’t filled with crazy upsets like the previous week, but Rivalry Week didn’t disappoint, either.  As we do every week, CSF takes a look at the top stories from the week that was.

LSU is the clear #1: Les Miles and his Tigers have continued their quest for another BCS Title, and #3 Arkansas was the latest victim.  A lot of experts said that if anyone could challenge the dominant defense and plethora of NFL-ready defensive backs on the LSU roster, it was Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson and his stable of great receivers.  After jumping to a 14-0 lead, Arkansas found out why LSU is the #1 team in the country.  Tyrann Matthieu led the way with a punt return for a touchdown and two more forced fumbles, and the rout was on.  LSU takes on a red-hot Georgia team in the SEC Championship this weekend, but expect them to be in New Orleans for the BCS Title on January 9th.

Trent Richardson makes his case for the Heisman: The junior running back is looking to become the second player in Bama history to bring home the Heisman, and he made a huge statement in arguably the most heated rivalry in college football, when he rushed for 203 yards against Auburn in the Iron Bowl.  On the season, Richardson has rushed for 1,583 yards and 20 TDs.  His former teammate, Mark Ingram, won the Heisman in 2009 with similar stats, posting 1,542 yards, but Ingram had an extra game (the SEC Championship Game, which Richardson will not have).

Stage has been set for a painfully dreadful Pac 12 Championship: The inaugural Pac 12 Championship Game could end up with worse ratings than the MAC Championship this on Friday, when both conference championship games are set to take place.  What will be more fun to watch?  Ohio vs. Northern Illinois?  Or lowly UCLA vs Oregon?  Due to USC’s post-season ban from the Pete Carroll regime and the dismal collapse of Arizona State late in the season, the 6-6 UCLA Bruins will serve as little more than a bump in the road for the fast-paced Oregon offense.  The match up is not what Pac 12 officials had in mind when they created the 12-team conference to ensure the ability for a conference title game.  And the ratings will show that.

Urban Meyer to Ohio State: After his worst season at Florida and signs of more of the same entering this season, Urban Meyer sited health reasons for an early exit from Gainesville.  Apparently, Meyer has the same doctor who cured Magic Johnson of HIV, because the former head coach for the Gators has accepted the reigns at Ohio State for next season.  All joking aside, Meyer should be a good fit for the Buckeyes, and barring NCAA sanctions, they should compete for a Big Ten Title next season.  Like him or not, Meyer knows how to win…and win quickly.  He won his first of two BCS Titles at Florida in just two seasons.

Florida head coach Urban Meyer pulled his best Brett Favre impression today, retiring for the second time in less than a year.  Last spring, Meyer announced his resignation as Florida’s head coach, a resignation that lasted all of one day.  There was speculation that Meyer was persuaded to have the sudden change of heart when multiple blue chip recruits began to waver, just weeks before National Signing Day.

After winning two BCS Titles, 2010 has not been a fun ride for Urban Meyer and the Gators (google images)

Meyer may regret his decision to return.  The Gators underachieved mightily this season, going 7-5 during the regular season, with an implosion against rival Florida State a couple of weeks ago, in which the Seminoles spanked Meyer’s Gator squad 31-7.  The loss was Meyer’s first against their hated rival in Tallahassee.

That loss fueled even more fire to the questioning of whether or not Meyer, who many credit with mastering and even starting the spread option that has redefined college football, had the bulk of the responsibility for teaching and coaching the Gator offense, which put up record numbers with marquee players like, Tim Tebow, Percy Harvin and Aaron Hernandez.

The X-box-type of numbers that Tebow and Harvin put up a couple of years ago took a substantial dip in scoring last season, when his offensive coordinator, Dan Mullen left the program to take over the head coaching job at Mississippi State.  Those numbers plummeted in 2010, after Meyer not only lost his offensive coordinator, but he also lost his Heisman Trophy winning quarterback, in Tebow.

What may have been the writing on the wall for Meyer was the consistent drop in scoring over the past four seasons.  Below is a breakdown that illustrates this:

• 2007–552 total points
• 2008–611 total points
• 2009–502 total points
• 2010–351 total points

Granted, the Gators still have a bowl game to go, but barring a 149-point outburst in the Outback Bowl against Penn State, this season will mark the first time the Gators have failed to hit the 500-point mark in the past four seasons.

In the press conference following Florida State’s dismantling of the Gators, the usually confident Meyer was visibly rattled and bewildered when he explained that the Gator program “would be back,” and he acknowledged that his team had quite a bit of work to do.

It appears that Meyer has left that work for someone else.  Unless he changes his mind tomorrow.

Florida State’s 31-7 throttling of the Florida Gators this past weekend was much more than a win–it marks a new beginning for the Seminoles and a sign of things to come.  All three of the state’s major programs (Florida, Miami and FSU) have made runs, but with blow out victories over Miami earlier this season and over the hated Gators and Urban Meyer last weekend should have FSU fans very excited about the direction of their program.

College FootBlog takes a look at four major evolutions that were apparent with FSU’s coveted “State Championship”–something the ‘Noles had not done since the 1999 season.

1.  Talent discrepancy:  Over the last decade (Miami in the first part of the decade and Florida over the last six years), FSU was outmatched on at least one side of the ball.  FSU had no answer for Sean Taylor and the dominant Miami defenses in the early part of the decade, and they were absolutely no match for Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin.

My, how times have changed.  While Florida has plummeted to #78 nationally in total offense, the FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher has the ‘Noles have continued to develop into a more balanced offense, but the biggest difference has been the FSU defense.  After ranking in the 100′s in every major statistical category last season, new defensive coordinator Mark Stoops has revamped the D in the top 40 defenses in the nation this year.   While the Gators and Hurricanes have dropped to worse records this year, Florida State already has nine wins with two more games left in the season.

FSU Head Coach Jimbo Fisher beat rivals Miami and Florida in his first season (google images)

2.  Recruiting:  Florida State was already off to a great start in recruiting (Rivals currently has FSU ranked 4th overall), and the huge wins over the ‘Canes and Gators will only solidify a top five finish in recruiting.  There were over 100 recruits at the Florida game, and many of those athletes are considering the Big 3 schools in the state of Florida. 

Those recruits saw a completely one-sided game on Saturday, one in which the Florida Gators displayed an unimaginative, ineffective offensive game plan that generated a whopping 64 yards passing.  Meanwhile, the Hurricanes lost an overtime game to the South Florida Bulls, which resulted in a 7-5 regular season and the firing of head coach Randy Shannon.

3.  Preparation for the NFL:  Tebow’s lack of development as a passer was well-documented last spring before the NFL combine.  Tebow had to spend his spring retraining himself how to throw a football.  Urban Meyer was openly criticized by scouts and media for not making those corrections in the four years he had Tebow on campus.  In contrast, current Florida QB John Brantley, who is more of a pro-style quarterback has struggled mightily in Meyer’s spread attack, posting anemic numbers this season.  Despite having all the speed and talent at wide receiver, Brantley is averaging just over 168 yards passing per game.

In Miami, quarterback Jacory Harris entered the season on the Heisman radar, but he has noticeably regressed in 2010.  Both Harris and FSU quarterback Christian Ponder have been down statistically versus last season, and injuries to each have been a major culprit.  However, there is no question on which QB is more NFL-ready. 

4.  Size of Players:  Since Fisher’s arrival as the offensive coordinator four years ago, he immediately began recruiting bigger, more physical players, and that trend has continued on defense since he took over as head coach this past January.  On the defensive line, FSU is beginning to look more like an SEC team, with defensive tackles going from the 270 lb range to 285-300 lbs.  Defensive ends, linebackers and safeties are getting much bigger and faster as well (FSU’s starting safeties are Nick Moody at 6’2″, 228 lbs. and Terrance Parks at 6’2″ , 218 lbs.).

The past few years, FSU has lost games in the trenches to bigger, stronger teams.  That discrepancy was not as apparent this season, and as Fisher and his staff continue to recruit bigger players, along with an enhanced strength and conditioning program that Fisher instituted immediately after taking the reigns, expect this trend to continue.