There are a number of flaws in the NFL scouting system, namely how scouts overvalue workouts in the off-season.  Even if a prospect has great game film, he has to impress scouts with his workout numbers and “confirm” his ability in order to be considered a high-round pick.  Also, there is no standard way to scout players necessarily.  It is not an exact science and a lot of guesswork is used to determine a player’s future, including estimating his potential and his durability.  However, scouts make do as best they can and damn it they know a lot about football, so I trust their opinions much more than the everyday observer.  Being a poser, I will play the part of an scout and give you my opinions on prospects for the 2010 NFL Draft (do not worry – I have done some studying).  This entry will mark the first part of an ongoing series where I rank my Top-5 draft eligible players at each position.  I will also provide my most underrated and most overrated prospect at each position.

An appropriate place to start would be the quarterback position, considering it is the most talked about position in football.  Let’s add fuel to the fire.

1) Sam Bradford – Oklahoma – 6’4″  236 lbs

Bradford has been the premier talent at QB in the college ranks the last couple years.  The only reason there is a debate between Clausen and him is because of the shoulder surgery that sidelined Bradford for almost the entire 2009 season.  From everything that I have heard, Bradford’s shoulder should check out fine.  What makes Bradford the best in this draft is his accuracy, arm strength, footwork and ability to read defenses.  Some people say that because of the Sooners’ offensive system, Bradford had large windows in which to fit the ball into.  But watching him play reveals that his passes are so consistently on target (at all levels) that he can fit the ball anywhere regardless of the window.  Bradford’s best attribute, however, is his lightning-quick release.  He has a unique way of throwing the ball and he will have to learn to keep the ball above pad-level, but his release is very quick.  Bradford has shown the ability to consistently throw the ball accurately downfield as well, and even though his arm strength is not elite, he puts proper touch on deep throws and drives off his backfoot.  Another question surrounding Bradford is how will he handle pressure considering how well-protected he was in 08 by a talented o-line.  First off, it is not like Bradford never saw pressure and never took a hit.  He showed the ability to stand in the pocket and take a hit while still delivering a great throw.  His footwork is also superb, sidestepping the rush in the pocket.  I believe that as long as his shoulder checks out, Bradford will be a top-five pick in April, and I expect that when it is all said and done, St. Louis will take him number one overall.

2) Jimmy Clausen – Notre Dame – 6’3″  222 lbs

Clausen moved himself up draft boards maybe more than anyone else this season.  One thing that jumps out at you about Clausen is that he knows how to win football games in the fourth quarter.  Clausen led Notre Dame to four 4th quarter comebacks and fell short a few other times.  You could argue that the loss to USC was really not his fault, however.  Another thing that Jimmy has going for him in scouts’ minds is that he now has three years of experience in an NFL offense under Charlie Weis.  He has experience turning his back to the defense on play-action and most importantly, he knows how to move around the pocket and displays good footwork when taking snaps under center.  This ability is huge in some personnel men’s minds because the learning curve is easier in transitioning from college to the pro ranks.  Clausen’s accuracy is excellent and he has flashed the ability to look off the safety with head movement and pump-fakes.  While his deep-ball is accurate and thrown with good touch, there are some questions about his ability to consistently complete some deep routes.  When going deep, Clausen sinks down and loads up in order to get enough power behind the throw.  He will not have as much time in the pocket in the NFL so he needs to shorten that motion.  All things considered, Clausen is a first-round prospect who I expect to thrive in the NFL. I don’t see him falling past Cleveland at number 7.

3) Colt McCoy – Texas – 6’1″  216 lbs

McCoy is an interesting prospect to me.  On one hand, you have a proven leader and a guy with a great personality that commands respect in the huddle.  McCoy excelled in college under Mack Brown and has above-average accuracy, footwork and football intelligence.  On the other hand, you have a guy who occasionally forces bad throws, does not make multiple reads and has only marginal arm strength.  McCoy does not have a consistently accurate deep ball down the middle of the field and while he usually makes good deep throws down the sideline, he tends to throw off-balance and the ball sails on him.  His play recognition is good and he knows where to go with the football, but he tends to stare down one receiver.  McCoy was not asked to make multiple reads in college because the Longhorns’ offense is designed to get receivers into open spaces quickly on underneath routes and crossing patterns.  However, Colt has shown the ability to check down to the running back when no one is open downfield.  To me, the concerns about how he will transition to the NFL are too risky to take him in the first round.  McCoy is a smart kid with a lot of heart, but he will struggle with taking snaps under center and he is a bit of a project.  I can see a team taking a chance on him in the early second round because there are multiple teams with questions at the quarterback position.

4) Dan LeFevour – Central Michigan – 6’3″  224 lbs

LeFevour has flown largely under the radar this season and after watching film of him, I feel like he can be a legitimate starter in the NFL.  A big knock on LeFevour is that he played in a shotgun-spread system in college.  Scouts wonder whether or not he will be able to successfully transition to a pro-style offense.  While I agree with the sentiment that he is a bit of a project, LeFevour shows above-average accuracy and arm strength and 2-3 years down the road, he can develop into a starting QB.  LeFevour consistently fits the ball into tight spaces and is especially accurate on intermediate routes between 10-20 yards downfield.  The Senior Bowl was also beneficial for LeFevour because he showed scouts he can make adequate use of pump-fakes, head-fakes and shoulder-fakes to look off the safety.  His release is somewhat of a three-quarters release, but he gets the ball out quickly and knows how to change arm angles well.  I see LeFevour as a late-second round prospect but he will probably be a third-round pick because late-round teams are not looking for QB’s necessarily.

5) Tony Pike – Cincinnati- 6’6″  223 lbs

Pike is very tall and lanky, and his thinness is a concern for some people because it puts into question his ability to take hits and stay healthy in the NFL.  Another concern is that Pike played in a shotgun-heavy offense at Cincinnati.  That fact is not as troubling to me as his tendency to stare down his receivers.  Pike rarely looks off the safety and this will kill him in the pros.  While Pike shows good accuracy on short and intermediate routes, his deep ball is of some concern as it tends to sail on him.  Pike does a good job of protecting the ball and makes sound decisions with his throws.  However, he does not have the arm strength to thread the ball into many tight spaces. In a weak QB class, I see Pike as a third- or fourth-round prospect that will need some tutoring to develop into an adequate starting QB in the NFL.

Most Underrated

Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan) – Not many people are aware of this kid’s talent.  Although he may struggle transitioning to a pro-style offense, LeFevour can make all the throws asked of him with good accuracy.  A great career at Central Michigan will also help him out; his production has been outstanding.

Most Overrated

Tim Tebow (Florida – 6’3″  236 lbs) - Tebow is without a doubt the most polarizing prospect in this year’s draft class.  One thing he has to be given credit for is his intangibles.  No one has ever questioned this kid’s personality or what kind of leader he is.  Mel Kiper says Tebow has “Number-One Overall” intangibles and he is right.  Having said that, Tebow is an enormous project at QB.  His arm strength is good and he knows how to maneuver in the pocket.  However, his accuracy suffers when he is asked to throw the ball downfield and most passes Tebow was asked to make at Florida were underneath routes.  The Gators have so many athletes and playmakers that Tebow simply got them the ball on screens or in space and they made plays.  I also seriously question Tebow’s ability to play in a pro-style offense.  At the Senior Bowl, he struggled immensely with timing and footwork when asked to take snaps under center.  The biggest concern for Tebow going forward is his release.  He takes way too long to wind up and throw. He drops the ball all the way down to his hips and essentially windmills the football when winding up.  There is no way he can succeed in the NFL by throwing that way because he puts the football at serious risk to get stripped or batted down.  Of course, if there is any player that can overcome the doubts and adversity that he is facing, it is Tebow.  That said, I believe Tebow is a fourth-round prospect in need of a complete overhaul of his passing mechanics.

NFL Combine Big Winners and Losers–By Jeff Dunbar

Each year, millions of dollars are at stake in Indianapolis, as top college players take part in testing and interviews at the NFL Combine.  Depending on their performances over four-day period, these young men can literally make or lose millions of dollars based on what they show NFL scouts in this short amount of time.

This year was no different from years past as a few individuals improved their stock, while others likely took major hits to their wallets.  College FootBlog breaks down six of the biggest winners and three of the biggest losers based on their combine performances.

Winners

Jacoby Ford posted the Combine's top forty time at 4.28 seconds (google images)

1.  Jacoby Ford (WR/Clemson):  Ford stole the show on the wideout day, posting a ridiculous forty time of 4.28.  At 5’9″ and 186 lbs, many experts had him pegged in the later rounds of the draft.  Ford helped his stock even more by running very crisp routes, negating the criticism that he was just a return man.  With his performance in the receiver drills and his forty time, Ford is now drawing comparisons to Carolina Panther All-Pro Steve Smith.

2.  Taylor Mays (Safety/USC):  Mays was already tabbed as a first rounder, but his 4.43 time in the forty may have moved him into the top 10.  Mays has made a steady climb since the Senior Bowl, where he intercepted a pass in the game, showing critics that he is only a big hitter that he can also perform in coverage.

3.  Jahvid Best ( RB/Cal):  Best was right in the thick of the Heisman race before he was forced to miss several games due to a concussion.  His speed has been well-documented–Best was the California state champion in the 100-meter dash as a senior with a blistering time of 10.31 seconds.  That speed was on display for the pro scouts at the combine as Best posted the top time for all running backs, edging CJ Spiller by 0.02 seconds with a time of 4.35.

4.  Eric Berry (Safety/Tennessee):  Berry also showed out in the forty-yard dash, posting an official time of 4.47.  Like Mays, Berry was already considered a first rounder, but the versatile defensive back showed a lot of confidence and great hips and change of direction in the combine drills.  That, in addition to playing for defensive guru Monte Kiffin should result in a nice payday for him next month.

5.  Sean Weatherspoon (ILB/Missouri):  Weatherspoon continues to see his stock soar as he ran a 4.68 forty, which is very respectable for a middle linebacker.  He also did an unbelievable 34 reps of 225 lbs in the bench press.  This strong performance combined with his dominance in the Senior Bowl, where Weatherspoon showed cover skills to compliment his ability to close holes and make tackles will only help his stock.

6.  Dekoda Watson (Linebacker/Florida St.):  Watson ran a 4.52 forty and is now up to 240 lbs.  FSU’s defensive captain from 2009 battled minor injuries throughout his career, but his speed off the edge and his improved muscle mass should help the OLB move higher in the third round or potentially crack the late second round.

Losers

Joe Haden's slow forty time likely dropped him out of the Top 10 in next months draft (google images)

1.  Joe Haden (CB/Florida):  Haden was widely considered the to DB in the draft this year, but his stock took a major hit at the combine, as he posted a very unimpressive 4.57 and followed that time up with a 4.60.  Despite all the great film of Haden from his dominant days at Florida, this slow time will have a major impact on his stock. 

2.  LeGarrette Blount  (RB/Oregon):  Blount was already fighting an uphill battle due to his actions in the 2009 opener against Boise State when he KO’d Byron Hout and then had to be held back by coaches and teammates from going into the crowd to fight fans.  After a solid performance at the Senior Bowl, Blount showed up at the combine looking like he was carrying some extra, unnecessary weight. 

That proved to be the case when he clocked in at 4.62 and 4.69 in the forty.  His 241-pound frame should help his cause, but even for a big back, 4.62 is not a solid time.  Blount could have offset the less than stellar forty time with the bench press, but he managed 19 reps of 225 lbs, which is okay, but not spectacular.

3.  Tony Pike (QB/Cincinnati):  Pike was on a lot of scouts’ radar going into this season, but after a rather unimpressive performance at the Senior Bowl, he had a lot to gain going into the combine.  After the combine, he likely dropped even lower.  Pike took part in throwing drills and many scouts were unimpressed with his arm strength.  Pike, who is not a physical specimen, will have to hope for a third round selection.

The future looks bright for former Bearcat.

By Coden Mruk

MORGANTOWN, WV – Cincinnatti QB Tony Pike has finished his college career as a two year starter for the Bearcats throwing for over 5,000 yards and 49 touchdowns. In his final season at Cincinnati, Pike led his team to a 12-0 regular season record and a birth in the 2009-2010 Allstate Sugar Bowl. Improving each year, Pike saw his touchdown numbers shoot from 19 to 29 this past season. Just as impressive was that he threw those touchdowns without turning the ball over, throwing only 6 INTs on the season. Coming in to the final game of the season against Pitt for the Big East championship Pike had only thrown 3 interceptions on the year. He managed to match his 3 additional interceptions with 3 touchdowns and the all important game winner to take the conference and finish out a perfect regular season. Also note that he threw 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in Cincinnati’s only loss to Florida.

Much of this past year’s success can be credited to the Bearcats high flying offense led by Pike and senior wideout Mardy Gilyard. The duo hooked up for a total of 9 touchdowns in as many games. Pike missed 3 regular season games due to injury but before going down was considered a candidate for the Heisman trophy.

Now, after impressing everyone at the Senior Bowl including ESPN’s and Scout.com’s Todd McShay, Tony Pike finds himself right in the middle of the draft process and there is a ton of buzz around this guy. In fact, Mcshay called Pike the “best all around prospect” at this years Senior Bowl. Pointing out Pike’s upside,Mcshay calls his ball “deadly accurate”, and continued by noting Pike “shows good poise in the pocket”. If he can continue to improve on his pocket awareness and ability to read coverages he becomes an elite NFL QB prospect standing 6’6 and weighing in at 225 lbs. He has the body of your prototypical quarterback resembling Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer. Scouts and GMs both love what Tony Pike brings to the table at the quarterback position.

Lets be realistic, there are about ten total teams whose quarterback position can be considered up in the air or unsettled. From the Rams to the Vikings, throw in the Jaguars, Cardinals, Panthers, and Seahawks…to name a few. I’m not saying that ten teams are going to draft a quarterback, especially not within the first three rounds of this years draft. What I’m saying is that if you are one of these GMs and you see a quarterback on your draft board who you feel can make your team better you draft him. As we all know the quarterback is the leader of the offense and by default the scape goat when things turn sour. Having a quarterback whose abilities only allow him to manage an offense puts a strain on defenses that few teams can afford. That’s why the strong arm and accuracy of Pike has a lot of people taking a closer look. Here is a short look at a few of those scenarios.

Minnesota Vikings- This whole situation revolves around Brett Favre’s decision to come back or retire. For sake of this argument lets say he retires. The Minnesota Vikings are stacked on the defensive side of the ball however they are aging quickly. The offense has a premiere running back, three good wide receivers, and a tight end already in place. We have all seen  what Minnesota can do with an effective passing game and we have also seen just how ineffective Tavaris Jackson can be. Minnesota could address the  defense early and Tony Pike could find his way on the Vikings draft board come round 3.

Seattle Seahawks- There is a new sheriff in town in Seattle and he wants to win. Pete Carroll had a short stint in the NFL prior to this gig with the Seahawks but his professional coaching career turned out to be a bust. He moved on to USC where he experienced win after win, bowl after bowl. He’s going to want to win and win now. To do that, don’t be surprised to see the Seahawks draft a quarterback to play and learn behind Matt Hasselbeck, who could be looking for work if he doesn’t get the job done soon.

Arizona Cardinals- It looks like kurt Warner’s career has finally come to an end. Originally, Arizona’s plan was to move in to the future featuring Matt Leinart at the helm. The time Leinart has spent on the feild, though it short, has not been by any means impressive. To me, it is obvious that Matt Leinart is not the answer for the future unless he improves significantly. This improvement could be sparked by creating a small quarterback controversy by drafting a guy like Pike. Give yourself two young quarterbacks both of whom are looking to prove something. Announce Leinart as your starter going in to camp giving him the confidence of the coaching staff and front office and let Tony Pike learn from the sideline.

Do I think Tony Pike is going to be a great NFL quarterback? No. Do I think any team should bet the farm on a guy like Pike? No.I do think that Tony Pike has put himself in position to be considered an elite prospect at the quarterback position. If I’m a GM I take a chance on Pike in round 3. If he falls to round 4 or 5 its a steal.

In our first two pieces, College FootBlog ranked the third through the sixth ranked BCS conferences from the 2009 season (see link). In this three-part breakdown, we analyze the results from each conference from the 2009 college football season, and we also give an outlook for the upcoming 2010 season.

Without further adieu, here are our top two BCS conferences from our Power Rankings.

2.  Big East

2009 Recap: There was a time when analysts argued if the Big East should even have the right to an automatic BCS bid for its champion.  That is no longer the case.  Most people left the Big East for dead when Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College left for what was believed to be the greener pastures of the ACC.  While the ACC has fallen from respectability, the Big East has consistently raised the bar over the last three years.

Cincinnati's Mardy Gilyard was one of the most explosive players in college football in '09 (google images)

The Big East went 4-2 in their bowl games, and this was despite Cincinnati’s loss to Florida in the Sugar Bowl (which, coincidentally, was a horrible match up by the selection committee).  We are all aware of what Tony Pike, Zach Collaros and Mardy Gilyard did for the Bearcat offense, but the Big East was much ‘Bigger’ this season, and it was the second-deepest conference in the nation.

Dave Wannstedt has Pitt back on the national scene and they gave Cincinnati all they could handle in a stunning 45-44 loss that was one of the best (if not the best) college football games all season.  Overall, the Panthers finished with ten wins on the year, West Virginia and Rutgers racked up nine wins and USF and UConn each pulled in eight victories on the year.

2010 Outlook: Coaching changes could have a significant effect on the Big East next season.  The Departure of Cincinnati coach Brian Kelly for Notre Dame and the firing of South Florida coach Jim Leavitt will put a lot of pressure on new head coaches Butch Jones and Skip Holtz.

The good news is that each of those two programs will have a proven quarterback.  Cincy did not lose a beat when Tony Pike was lost temporarily due to injury because of the great play of Zach Collaros.  And USF will have leader Matt Grothe back next fall, but they now have a proven back up in BJ Daniels.

The issue for the Bulls is going to be replacing future NFL defensive ends George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul.  Pitt will have to replace quarterback Bill Stull, but running back Dion Lewis will take a lot of pressure off the new starter at QB.

Overall, it will be difficult to keep the #2 Power Ranking in 2010, but the coaching and talent will continue to gain well-deserved respect from college football.

1.  SEC

2009 Recap: As much as some fans would like to see a changing of the guard, the SEC simply will not allow that to happen.  All the SEC did this season is send ten of their twelve teams to bowl games, and they won six, which included the Sugar Bowl and the BCS National Championship.

When the dust settled, the SEC combined for a whopping 97-59 record in ’09, making it by far the deepest conference in the country.  Led by Alabama’s national championship team and the Florida Gators, whose only loss came at the hands of the Crimson Tide, the SEC once again imposed its will on the rest of college football.

Mark Ingram's punishing running-style led the Tide to the BCS Title (google images)

With the one-two punch of Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram and freshman Trent Richardson, Bama’s smashmouth running game and defense was in stark contrast to Florida’s spread attack and Arkansas’ pass-happy scheme, but each was effective all season.  Georgia was disappointing but still finished the year with eight wins, capped off with a 44-20 drubbing of Texas A&M.  LSU and Ole Miss finished with very respectable nine win seasons as well, and both are looking to have even better years next season.

2010 Outlook: Look for much of the same with the SEC dominating college football.  Flordia will have a bit of a rebuilding year after the loss of Tim Tebow and likely NFL first rounders, LB Brandon Spikes, TE Aaron Hernandez and CB Joe Haden.

The scary part is that the other top teams could be and should be even better this fall.  That includes ‘Bama, who returns the running back tandem of Ingram and Richardson, but they also return WR Julio Jones and QB Greg McElroy.

Head coach Gene Chizik will look to build on the momentum he created at Auburn, and with Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett and Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead, the SEC could possibly have a pair of first round quarterbacks in the 2011 NFL Draft.

Just to recap, College FootBlog’s 2009 BCS Conference Power Rankings are as follows:

1. SEC
2. Big East
3. Big Ten
4. Big 12
5. ACC
6. Pac 10

Please feel free to post your own power rankings and give your feedback.  Also, look for College FootBlog’s analysis of the recruiting season in a couple of weeks.

The NFL Draft will be a day full of fame, emotion, large pay-checks, but most importantly, answers. With the opening rounds set to kick off on April 22nd at 7:30 p.m., many fans and players alike are asking similar questions.

Will Sam Bradford be able to recover from his season ending surgery? Will Colt McCoy be able to over the pinch nerve that sidelined him for the biggest game of his collegiate career? Will Time Tebow, arguably the best college quarterback of all time, make an impact?

As much as I’d love to give you the answers to these question, I can’t. And what makes these questions so unique is that no one in the country can predict what will be the outcome of the upcoming 2010 football season. Below are the top five quarterbacks in my eyes and their numbers that justify my reasoning:

5.) Tim Tebow (Florida)- When Tebow is mentioned, the first thing that should be noted is his will to win. The guy can’t stand losing (as we learned after the SEC Championship game where he was left in tears). In his 55 games as a Florida Gator, Tebow was an impressive 48-7. However, his freshman year he was back-up to Chris Leak. It also doesn’t hurt when you rush for 2947 yards, pass for 9826 and score 110 touchdowns in four years. Despite the numbers, the collegiate Tom Brady will have a lot to prove in the NFL this upcoming season.

4.) Colt McCoy (Texas)- This may come as a shock to some people, but his stock dropped when he announced his arm was “dead”. I understand he was emotional after being knocked out of the national championship game and he should be. I just fell of the bandwagon when he made the announcement four months before the NFL draft that he couldn’t feel his arm. Luckily, it’s only a pinched nerve and he is the winning-est quarterback in college football history with 45 wins as a starter. His 112 touchdowns to 45 interceptions make him an easy pick. Let’s hope rehab can get this star back to where he needs to be.

3.) Tony Pike (Cincinnati)- This may surprise some (all) people when I tell you that Tony Pike is the third best QB in this year’s draft. Let’s see if some of his number can change your mind: 5018 yards passing, 49 touchdowns, only 20 picks and aside from getting routed by Florida, an undefeated Senior season. Plus, in the NFL you need to be durable. Well, Pike showed us he can be durable when he played through a broken non-throwing arm his senior year. Only missing a few snaps gave his team the best chance to win. I’m not saying Tony Pike for President, but don’t overlook this kid.

2.) Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)- 8148 yards passing, 60 touchdowns in three seasons will be hard to replace at Notre Dame as this Junior announced he will enter the NFL draft. With the poise to win and improving his passer rating each season, Jimmy Clausen is a lock at number two on my board of top five quarterbacks this year. His sophomore season, Clausen threw a solid 25 touchdowns, but was accompanied by 17 interceptions. Charlie Weis, the Fighting Irish Nation and Jimmy all knew this wouldn’t be a good enough recipe for success. Looking to silence all the critiques, Clausen went out and tossed 28 TDs and only four picks his junior year. I’m glad that he was able to fill the large shoes he was given by the media.

1.)Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)- This was a no brainer. Yes, his injury set him back, but Bradford is just that good. If we include the 562 yards passing from his short-lived junior season, Bradford tossed 8403 yards through the air. Go figure; Bradford only played two full seasons. With a Heisman Trophy and a National Championship appearance under his belt, the gunslinger deserves to be taken top five in April’s draft. The 88 touchdowns isn’t too bad of a resume builder either.

As stated earlier, the numbers don’t always tell the story, but these numbers are all we have. The NFL combine in Indianapolis will have a direct impact on these young players’ stock as well. It’s a shame we all have to wait until 7:00 p.m. on April 22nd to see the results. Now it’s my turn to ask you the question:

Who’s your pick?