With the recent hiring of Urban Meyer at Ohio State, many Buckeye fans are elated at the apparent forgone conclusion of a BCS title and a return to the top of NCAA football. While there is no doubt that the 47 year old coach has an incredible win percentage, the highest ever through the 2009 season, a deeper dive into the statistics should be enough to have Bucky a little worried.
1. Urban Meyer doesn’t stay in a position long – True, in this age of coaching carousels, it’s hard to keep your job long enough to have even a water fountain named after you but with Urban, the problem is one of what professional career coaches call “job hopping.” Dating back to his high school coaching days, he is yet to stay with a program more than 6 years (which he did only once) and his average tenure as a head coach (Bowling Green, Utah & Florida) is 3 years. In all 3 of these positions, Meyer was able to turn average programs into winners but he has always had one distinct advantage…
2. Urban Meyer walks into positions ripe for winning. – Lack of game film, a substandard conference and general national ignorance of the Bowling Green program during Meyer’s tenure make it hard to do an in depth analysis of his performance at Bowling Green. It appears his signature wins were over a middle of the pack Missouri team in 2001 and 2002. Meyer was handed a talent laden Utah program in 2003, complete with a Heisman finalist quarterback and emerging NFL star in a (sic) down Mountain West Conference. In similar fashion, Urban took over for one the greatest “Best Recruiter / Worst Coach” dichotomies of all time in Ron Zook at Florida. With a locker room full of more talent than that of the Dallas Cowboy’s cheerleaders, had Meyer only filled out the roster card and left each game at kickoff, he’d likely enjoyed 10 win seasons. Picking up a commitment from lifelong Gator fan Tim Tebow within 18 months of his start date didn’t hurt as long as he could keep the 5 star, Parade All American quarterback Chris Leak happy about it.
3. Meyer’s use of the spread offense is unparalleled…it’s also old news – If there is one thing to be jaw droppingly impressed about with Urban Meyer, it’s his use and perfection of the spread offense. Athleticism alone did not win national titles, his offensive genius had allot to do with it. With that said, it’s no longer novel and he’s no longer in the “speed state” of Florida. While he will certainly recruit top talent at OSU (a team that was a full step slower than his Gators) running a spread in the Big 10 will be exciting until they meet the majority of the power teams of the South or a high level West Coast team. Furthermore, the majority of BCS level teams see a spread offense no less than once every 3 games. While he may run it to perfection, the surprise factor will definitely be gone.
4. Meyer has a mess to clean up – Meyer has never had to assume leadership of a team facing NCAA compliance issues and history is not on his side. The more egregious the programs sins, the longer it typically takes to recover. While I certainly don’t compare the current OSU situation with SMU or even current day Miami or USC in regards to severity of rule breaking, self imposed sanctions plus those from the NCAA will make the ramp up time a little slower than the fast paced coach would prefer. I’m sure someone much smarter than I in mathematics could find a formula for the average number of years it takes to be ranked in the top 5 in coloration to number of scholarships lost. Don’t Stanford fans read college football blogs? They should be able to write this program between homework and their next Steve Jobs / iTunes / iPhoto tribute slideshow for their Mark Zuckerburg owned Facebook page.
I certainly hope my Buckeye readers do not misinterpret this as “hating” on Urban Meyer. Much like Tim Tebow in the NFL, you may like him or hate him but you have to admit that all he does is win. My only request is that those same readers take a look at the facts I’ve laid out, ponder them and let the next few years determine his legacy. While many college football fans are ready to put Meyer among the greatest of all time, I reserve judgment and admit pessimism as to his future success. I classify the “infamous coaches in NCAA history” into 3 categories. The most impressive are those that dominated for a great deal of time until the game passed them by. (Bear Bryant, Tom Osbourne, Bobby Bowden, Nick Saban is almost there) The 1B class ,if you will, are coaches that rose, struggled perhaps and then were able to recover to a degree but not at the same level. These are still great coaches but they all had shorter runs of success followed by less than ideal exits. (Lou Holtz, Steve Spurier, Jimmy Johnson) The last class would be coaches that so many fell in love with and heralded as the next great leader until they were exposed as being at “the right place and time.” (Phillip Fullmer, Rich Rodriguez, Pete Carrol, Nick Saban until he came back to Alabama) I would currently put Urban Meyer in the 1B category and see his next 5 years as the pivot point into one of the other classes. If he goes on to greatness at OSU, I’ll be first in line to carve him into the NCAA coach Mt Rushmore. However, if things do not turn out well and the championships don’t come after he’s had the chance to rebuild, don’t say I didn’t warn you…especially if he quits in 3 years…



