With the recent decline of each program, the Miami/Florida State Rivalry hasn’t garnered nearly as much hype as it did in the late 80′s and 90′s.  In 2010, however, each program looks like a return to glory (at least in the ACC) could be well within grasp. 

The winner of this Saturday’s match up will put one team in solid position for a run at the ACC Championship Game, while the loser will have to claw back in the ACC title hunt.  On the larger scale, the outcome of this game will also let the college football world know which one of these storied programs is closer to regaining its place among college football’s elite programs.

Each team is still at least a year away from being a serious contender for a national title, as evidenced by Miami’s loss to Ohio State and Florida State’s dismal performance at Oklahoma in Week 2.  In this edition of College FootBlog, we take a look at the strengths and weaknesses of each team, we present key match ups, and we will make our prediction of one of the most intense rivalries in college football.

Florida State

RB Jermaine Thomas will look to lead FSU's potent rushing attack into Miami this weekend (google images)

Key Strength:  The Running Game–Before the Oklahoma game, FSU quarterback Christian Ponder was considered a viable Heisman candidate, but so far this fall, it has been the ‘Noles’ running game that has been the constant.  FSU is averaging just over 208 yards per game on the ground, which ranks them 26th in the nation.  Head coach Jimbo Fisher relies on three different running backs to carry the load.  The trio of Jermaine Thomas, Ty Jones and Chris Thompson presents three completely different running styles, and they have combined for over 7.1 yards per carry.  The Seminoles will need another solid ground performance this weekend if they want to control the tempo of the game.

Key Concern:  Passing Defense–New defensive coordinator Mark Stoops has shown dramatic improvement since getting sliced and diced by Oklahoma a few weeks ago, but the Hurricanes will present the first real challenge to FSU’s secondary since that blow out loss in Norman.  We will find out this weekend just whether FSU’s pass defense has improved that much or if they have simply been the benefactors of weak opponents with even weaker passing attacks.  As good as OU looked, the ‘Canes appear to have a deeper WR corps, and if the ‘Noles can’t hold their own against Jacory Harris and company, it could be a long night for FSU.

Miami

Key Strength:  The Passing Game–Although Harris has thrown for eight INTs this season, he has also thrown for ten TDs.   When Harris stands tall and steps into his throws, he may have the best touch of any QB in the country.  When his offensive line protects him, Harris does a tremendous job of distributing the ball to his talented group of wideouts, which is led by 6’3″ 205 lb. senior Leonard Hankerson, who already has six TDs on the year.  If Harris and his stable of WRs get hot early, the ‘Canes could present a lot more problems than OU did to the FSU secondary because Miami has a lot more to their passing game than the bubble screen (which shredded FSU in the OU game).

Key Concern:  Rush Defense–Take away Miami’s opening day cupcake against FAMU and focus on their three real football games (Ohio State, Pitt and Clemson), and the ‘Canes are giving up 157 yards on the ground per game.  As good as they have been against the pass (ranked #6 nationally), they have shown vulnerability against solid running attacks, and they will certainly face another solid ground game this weekend.  If the ‘Canes can’t control the line of scrimmage, the FSU ground game could wear them down and take over in the second half.

Jacory Harris will need to cut down his mistakes the 'Canes have any hopes of beating FSU this weekend (google images)

Miami Offense vs. Florida State Defense

While FSU has improved immensely since the Oklahoma game, it is hard to believe that they can shut down Harris and his wide receivers all game.  Look for Miami offensive coordinator Mark Whipple to challenge Florida State’s young corners early and often, and a couple of big plays are bound to happen.  The key here will be how much pressure FSU can get on Harris.  Even if the much improved FSU defensive line can get in his face, Harris is still likely to burn them a time or two.  EDGE:  Miami

Florida State Offense vs. Miami Defense

Look for Miami to stack the box and do whatever they can to take away FSU’s dominant ground game.  Still, look for FSU’s ground game to make an impact by the second half.  Also, although Ponder has not lived up to the lofty expectations so far this season, he has proven that he can perform against the ‘Canes the past two seasons, and with Miami focused on taking the running game away, FSU’s senior QB will get a few shots at one-on-one coverage, and if history is any indicator, he will produce some big plays.  EDGE:  Florida State

Special Teams

The one thing that kept Miami in the Ohio State game earlier this year was their explosive special teams play.  The ‘Canes returned a kick and a punt for touchdowns in that match up.  Senior kicker/punter Matt Bosher was named to the Preseason All-ACC Team, and he has not disappointed so far this season.  Florida State counters with kicker Dustin Hopkins, who has sent 19 of his 33 kick offs into the end zone for touchbacks.  FSU also has the ever-dangerous Greg Reid returning punts and kicks.  Reid led the nation last season in punt return average and has already brought one back for a TD this season.  EDGE:  Push

Final Analysis

Like most games in this rivalry, expect this one to come down to the wire.  Of the last five meetings in this rivalry game, only one (2007′s match up) was decided by more than four points.  The difference in this one will be who wins the turnover battle, and Miami’s Harris has not made the significant improvement in this part of his game that many thought he would this year.  Florida State leads the nation with 25 sacks, and Harris has shown the same tendency against pressure as he did last year–he tends to throw the ball up for grabs and doesn’t step into his throws.  This could be the difference in what should be another exciting, down-to-the-wire football game.  Final Score Prediction:  Florida State wins 33-30

Despite the departure of legendary head coach Bobby Bowden, Florida State football has a lot to look forward to this fall.  Much of this optimism starts with new head coach Jimbo Fisher and the talent he has on offense.  College FootBlog takes an in-depth look at the Seminole offense, and when analyzing the 2010 FSU offense, it is quite evident that Fisher may be putting a winning formula together that helped LSU win a national championship in 2003.

In this edition of College FootBlog, we take a closer look at four specific areas that Fisher and the FSU staff have focused on, and we compare those areas to the successful season he had in Baton Rouge a few years ago.

For the first time since arriving at Tallahassee, Jimbo Fisher has two things that made his dominant offenses at LSU go, and he has two things he didn’t have in his time as Nick Saban’s offensive coordinator for the Tigers.  Let’s start with the things he didn’t have while at LSU.

If Senior QB Christian Ponder stays healthy, he should make a serious run at the Heisman this fall (google images)

A Heisman Trophy-caliber quarterback

Fisher had a solid QB in 2003 for the National Champions, but Matt Mauck was far from a Heisman hopeful.  Fisher is known for his ability to develop quarterbacks, and he has done a fine job so far with Ponder.  If Ponder can put up over 300 yards/game with a 4:1 TD/Int ratio (which is what he was doing last season until his injury in week 9), sportswriters will have to take notice.  And more importantly, for Fisher and FSU fans, that will likely translate to a solid season.

Christian Ponder enters his third full year as the starting signal-caller for the ‘Noles.  If one of two variables worked out in his favor last season, he would be mentioned by all major sports writers as a logical choice for a preseason candidate for the coveted award.  Those variables that were out of Ponder’s control were:  1)  Ponder separated his shoulder at Clemson last season, ending his season after eight games, missing the final three regular season games and  2)  FSU’s defense was downright atrocious last season and was the key contributor to another .500 season.  This season, as long as the defense improves, that should translate to more wins, which should keep Ponder on the national radar screen.

FSU should have the best offensive line in the ACC and one of the best in the nation

At LSU, Fisher had a solid O-line, but he did not have Rick Trickett, who is arguably the best offensive line coach in the country, and he did not have a combined 142 starts from their OL.  What was supposed to be a weakness for FSU three years ago, when Trickett was forced to start three true freshmen and two sophomores, not only ended up being a strength of the team, but it also established the base for a deep and battle-tested O-line going into this season.  FSU will send two seniors who are on the Outland Trophy watch list and three talented juniors.  One of those juniors, left tackle Andrew Datko, is up to 300 lbs now, after starting as a true freshman at a hair under 270. 

This kind of talent and experience in the trenches will give Fisher and Trickett a lot to work with and bodes well with a difficult game against Oklahoma in Norman in their second game of the season. 

Now let’s take a look at what Fisher finally has this year that he had at LSU, but has not had the luxury of in his short time in Tallahassee:

Diversity at wide receiver

From the moment he and receivers coach Lawrence Dawsey stepped foot on campus, they have attempted to overhaul the WR corps.  Primarily through recruiting, Fisher and Dawsey finally have a similar variety of wide outs that fit Fisher’s scheme.  On the 2003 National Championship team, Fisher had a nice blend of size (Michael Clayton, 6’4,” 215lbs., Dwayne Bowe, 6’2′” 221 lbs.) and speed and illusiveness (Devery Henderson, Skyler Green, etc.).

It is no coincidence that FSU’s wide outs are looking very similar these days.  Junior receiver Jarmon Fortson checks in at 6’3,” 221 lbs., and sophomores Willie Haulstead and Rodney Smith are 6’3,” 215 lbs. and 6”6,” 220 lbs., respectively.  At the other end of the spectrum are 5’11″ junior Bert Reed, who is the fastest player on the roster and newcomer De’Joshua Johnson who is known for his quickness in the open field.

Sophomore RB Lonnie Pryor will line up at fullback and tailback this fall (google images)

Depth at Running Back

 In LSU’s championship season, Fisher showed had the luxury of a deep and diverse stable of running backs.  It was very common to see four or more different backs carry the ball in a game that year.  Justin Vincent and Joseph Addai were the main two backs, but there were two other running backs who had 78 or more carries that year.

Last year because of depth issues and a nagging injury to starting RB Jermaine Thomas, Fisher had to rely heavily on a pair of true freshmen–the smaller, quicker Chris Thompson and the versatile RB Lonnie Pryor.  Along with the other three backs, FSU has Ty Jones, who has shown some flashes, but more importantly, the ‘Noles have the big, physical back that has been lacking in their offense since the departure of Greg Jones.  Juco transfer Debrale Smiley checks in at 5’11″ and 237 lbs, giving Fisher a legitimate power back.  The combination and diversity of running backs, in addition to the experienced offensive line should produce a solid running game for FSU this fall.

These additions and improvements should result in an explosive offense in 2010 and ultimately put FSU back in the ACC Championship hunt.  Big non-conference games against Oklahoma, BYU and Florida give the Seminoles a legitimate shot at getting back into the national picture, after several years of underachieving.  Only time will tell, but it appears that Fisher has successfully replicated a winning formula, at least on offense.