After twelve straight seasons with at least nine wins, since his arrival at Texas in 1998, the last two seasons have fallen short of expectations in Austin for Mack Brown. 

The major culprit which has caused the sudden skid has been the production (or lack thereof) from the offense.  The same spread attack that vaulted former QBs Vince Young and Colt McCoy into college stars and NFL draft picks has shown exactly how one-dimensional their new quarterbacks have been.

David Ash and Case McCoy (younger brother of Colt) have experienced highs and lows as the signal callers for Texas, and their inconsistency has placed a heavy burden on the athletic Longhorn defense, leading to a very unspectacular 13-12 record in the last two seasons.

The great part of the spread offense is that it can be high-tempo and virtually unstoppable if you have the athletes and a quarterback who is a significant threat to both run and throw for big yardage.  The weakness of this offensive scheme is that if you have a quarterback who can’t win games with his legs, you’re in big trouble–just ask Florida fans post-Tebow and Auburn post-Cam Newton.

The good news for Texas fans is the Longhorns now appear to be running a more conventional offense, similar to the one that co-offensive coordinator Major Applewhite ran when he ran the offense from under center.

Last week’s spring game showed a more traditional running game with the quarterback under center and out of the pistol sets, allowing Texas’ stable of talented running backs to head downhill immediately, instead of waiting for the ball in the slower-developing spread attack.  This throw back running game is what put Ricky Williams and Cedric Benson at the pinnacle of college football.

It’s also what allowed the Texas quarterbacks to run a balanced attack, despite their ability to rush the football.  Expect to see David Ash, who appears to have the inside track at the starter at QB this fall, to flourish in this offense.  A better offense will mean you can expect the ‘Horns to compete for another Big 12 title and get back where Mack Brown is used to being–winning 10 or more games in one season, rather than two.

Photo courtesy of Hoopthoughts.blogspot.com

There are a number of flaws in the NFL scouting system, namely how scouts overvalue workouts in the off-season.  Even if a prospect has great game film, he has to impress scouts with his workout numbers and “confirm” his ability in order to be considered a high-round pick.  Also, there is no standard way to scout players necessarily.  It is not an exact science and a lot of guesswork is used to determine a player’s future, including estimating his potential and his durability.  However, scouts make do as best they can and damn it they know a lot about football, so I trust their opinions much more than the everyday observer.  Being a poser, I will play the part of an scout and give you my opinions on prospects for the 2010 NFL Draft (do not worry – I have done some studying).  This entry will mark the first part of an ongoing series where I rank my Top-5 draft eligible players at each position.  I will also provide my most underrated and most overrated prospect at each position.

An appropriate place to start would be the quarterback position, considering it is the most talked about position in football.  Let’s add fuel to the fire.

1) Sam Bradford – Oklahoma – 6’4″  236 lbs

Bradford has been the premier talent at QB in the college ranks the last couple years.  The only reason there is a debate between Clausen and him is because of the shoulder surgery that sidelined Bradford for almost the entire 2009 season.  From everything that I have heard, Bradford’s shoulder should check out fine.  What makes Bradford the best in this draft is his accuracy, arm strength, footwork and ability to read defenses.  Some people say that because of the Sooners’ offensive system, Bradford had large windows in which to fit the ball into.  But watching him play reveals that his passes are so consistently on target (at all levels) that he can fit the ball anywhere regardless of the window.  Bradford’s best attribute, however, is his lightning-quick release.  He has a unique way of throwing the ball and he will have to learn to keep the ball above pad-level, but his release is very quick.  Bradford has shown the ability to consistently throw the ball accurately downfield as well, and even though his arm strength is not elite, he puts proper touch on deep throws and drives off his backfoot.  Another question surrounding Bradford is how will he handle pressure considering how well-protected he was in 08 by a talented o-line.  First off, it is not like Bradford never saw pressure and never took a hit.  He showed the ability to stand in the pocket and take a hit while still delivering a great throw.  His footwork is also superb, sidestepping the rush in the pocket.  I believe that as long as his shoulder checks out, Bradford will be a top-five pick in April, and I expect that when it is all said and done, St. Louis will take him number one overall.

2) Jimmy Clausen – Notre Dame – 6’3″  222 lbs

Clausen moved himself up draft boards maybe more than anyone else this season.  One thing that jumps out at you about Clausen is that he knows how to win football games in the fourth quarter.  Clausen led Notre Dame to four 4th quarter comebacks and fell short a few other times.  You could argue that the loss to USC was really not his fault, however.  Another thing that Jimmy has going for him in scouts’ minds is that he now has three years of experience in an NFL offense under Charlie Weis.  He has experience turning his back to the defense on play-action and most importantly, he knows how to move around the pocket and displays good footwork when taking snaps under center.  This ability is huge in some personnel men’s minds because the learning curve is easier in transitioning from college to the pro ranks.  Clausen’s accuracy is excellent and he has flashed the ability to look off the safety with head movement and pump-fakes.  While his deep-ball is accurate and thrown with good touch, there are some questions about his ability to consistently complete some deep routes.  When going deep, Clausen sinks down and loads up in order to get enough power behind the throw.  He will not have as much time in the pocket in the NFL so he needs to shorten that motion.  All things considered, Clausen is a first-round prospect who I expect to thrive in the NFL. I don’t see him falling past Cleveland at number 7.

3) Colt McCoy – Texas – 6’1″  216 lbs

McCoy is an interesting prospect to me.  On one hand, you have a proven leader and a guy with a great personality that commands respect in the huddle.  McCoy excelled in college under Mack Brown and has above-average accuracy, footwork and football intelligence.  On the other hand, you have a guy who occasionally forces bad throws, does not make multiple reads and has only marginal arm strength.  McCoy does not have a consistently accurate deep ball down the middle of the field and while he usually makes good deep throws down the sideline, he tends to throw off-balance and the ball sails on him.  His play recognition is good and he knows where to go with the football, but he tends to stare down one receiver.  McCoy was not asked to make multiple reads in college because the Longhorns’ offense is designed to get receivers into open spaces quickly on underneath routes and crossing patterns.  However, Colt has shown the ability to check down to the running back when no one is open downfield.  To me, the concerns about how he will transition to the NFL are too risky to take him in the first round.  McCoy is a smart kid with a lot of heart, but he will struggle with taking snaps under center and he is a bit of a project.  I can see a team taking a chance on him in the early second round because there are multiple teams with questions at the quarterback position.

4) Dan LeFevour – Central Michigan – 6’3″  224 lbs

LeFevour has flown largely under the radar this season and after watching film of him, I feel like he can be a legitimate starter in the NFL.  A big knock on LeFevour is that he played in a shotgun-spread system in college.  Scouts wonder whether or not he will be able to successfully transition to a pro-style offense.  While I agree with the sentiment that he is a bit of a project, LeFevour shows above-average accuracy and arm strength and 2-3 years down the road, he can develop into a starting QB.  LeFevour consistently fits the ball into tight spaces and is especially accurate on intermediate routes between 10-20 yards downfield.  The Senior Bowl was also beneficial for LeFevour because he showed scouts he can make adequate use of pump-fakes, head-fakes and shoulder-fakes to look off the safety.  His release is somewhat of a three-quarters release, but he gets the ball out quickly and knows how to change arm angles well.  I see LeFevour as a late-second round prospect but he will probably be a third-round pick because late-round teams are not looking for QB’s necessarily.

5) Tony Pike – Cincinnati- 6’6″  223 lbs

Pike is very tall and lanky, and his thinness is a concern for some people because it puts into question his ability to take hits and stay healthy in the NFL.  Another concern is that Pike played in a shotgun-heavy offense at Cincinnati.  That fact is not as troubling to me as his tendency to stare down his receivers.  Pike rarely looks off the safety and this will kill him in the pros.  While Pike shows good accuracy on short and intermediate routes, his deep ball is of some concern as it tends to sail on him.  Pike does a good job of protecting the ball and makes sound decisions with his throws.  However, he does not have the arm strength to thread the ball into many tight spaces. In a weak QB class, I see Pike as a third- or fourth-round prospect that will need some tutoring to develop into an adequate starting QB in the NFL.

Most Underrated

Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan) – Not many people are aware of this kid’s talent.  Although he may struggle transitioning to a pro-style offense, LeFevour can make all the throws asked of him with good accuracy.  A great career at Central Michigan will also help him out; his production has been outstanding.

Most Overrated

Tim Tebow (Florida – 6’3″  236 lbs) - Tebow is without a doubt the most polarizing prospect in this year’s draft class.  One thing he has to be given credit for is his intangibles.  No one has ever questioned this kid’s personality or what kind of leader he is.  Mel Kiper says Tebow has “Number-One Overall” intangibles and he is right.  Having said that, Tebow is an enormous project at QB.  His arm strength is good and he knows how to maneuver in the pocket.  However, his accuracy suffers when he is asked to throw the ball downfield and most passes Tebow was asked to make at Florida were underneath routes.  The Gators have so many athletes and playmakers that Tebow simply got them the ball on screens or in space and they made plays.  I also seriously question Tebow’s ability to play in a pro-style offense.  At the Senior Bowl, he struggled immensely with timing and footwork when asked to take snaps under center.  The biggest concern for Tebow going forward is his release.  He takes way too long to wind up and throw. He drops the ball all the way down to his hips and essentially windmills the football when winding up.  There is no way he can succeed in the NFL by throwing that way because he puts the football at serious risk to get stripped or batted down.  Of course, if there is any player that can overcome the doubts and adversity that he is facing, it is Tebow.  That said, I believe Tebow is a fourth-round prospect in need of a complete overhaul of his passing mechanics.

In Part 2 of our three-part coverage, College FootBlog continues our breakdown of the top six BCS conferences from the 2009 season.  In case you missed it, we ranked the fifth and sixth conferences earlier this week (see link). We continue our analysis by providing a recap of last season and an outlook for next year for conferences #3 and #4 in our Power Rankings.

4.  Big 12

Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh was one of very few bright spots in the Big 12 in '09 (google images)

2009 Recap:

If not for Texas making it to the BCS National Championship Game, the Big 12 would have ranked fifth or sixth in the ’09 Power Rankings.  Nebraska came out of nowhere, but their offense was anemic.  Oklahoma lost Sam Bradford and never really got on track all year.  Add in Mizzou and Texas Tech not living up to high expectations coming off successful 2008 campaigns, and the Big 12 didn’t have much to talk about beyond Colt McCoy, Jordan Shipley and Ndamukong Suh.

2010 outlook: Next season will likely be more of the same for the Big 12.  Although the loss of Colt McCoy in the first quarter of the BCS National Championship was a huge blow, it provided valuable experience to Freshman Garrett Gilbert.  Oklahoma’s offense should be improved with Landry Jones having a year of experience under his belt, but their dominant defense will likely take a step back.  The Sooners lose six defensive starters, including both corners and projected first-round DT Gerald McCoy.

Texas Tech will likely take a year or two before they truly integrate to Tommy Tuberville’s system, Oklahoma State will have to replace starting quarterback Zac Robinson and will lose WR Dez Bryant to the NFL.  Mizzou loses playmakers on each side of the ball in WR Denario Alexander and projected first round linebacker, Sean Weatherspoon.  Add to that, Nebraska’s departure of Suh (who many project as the number one overall pick in April’s draft), and the Big 12 North will have trouble keeping points off the scoreboard.

3.  Big Ten

2009 Recap: The major reason the Big Ten did not claim the #2 spot in the ’09 Power Rankings was depth.  Iowa surprised many experts by effectively shutting Georgia Tech’s offense down, thanks in large part to All-Big Ten DE Adrian Clayborn, who is planning on returning for his senior year.  Terrelle Pryor saved his best performance for last, as he dominated in Ohio State’s Rose Bowl win over Oregon.

The Big Ten finished with a bowl record of 4-3, with a surprising win from Wisconsin over Miami and a Penn State victory over an offensively inept LSU team.  A more in depth look at the top two teams from the conference, however, shows a couple of teams that were far from juggernauts.

Iowa had one of the best defenses in the nation, but their offense was nothing to write home about.  The Hawkeyes struggled to beat Arkansas State at home and had to depend on two blocked field goals at the end of the game to defeat another FCS opponent, Northern Iowa 17-16 in Iowa City.

The Buckeyes nearly lost their opener to Navy at home and fell to a struggling USC team, and they later fell to 5-7 Purdue.

Look for Terrelle Pryor to have a huge year in 2010 (google images)

2010 Outlook:

Look for the Big Ten to make a serious run at the #2 conference in the country next season.  Jim Tressel continues to put great defenses on the field for the Bucks and the offense should take a huge step forward with the return of running backs Brandon Saine and Boom Herron.  And if Terrelle Pryor’s Rose Bowl performance was a sign of things to come, the Bucks will be the real deal come fall.

Iowa is also very young on offense–the ‘Hawks will return both freshman running backs, quarterback Ricky Stanzi and wideout Marvin McNutt, who exploded onto the scene in 2009.  Couple that with Adrian Clayborn and several returners on an already dominant defense, and the ‘Hawks could make a serious run in 2010.

Three other teams from the Big Ten to keep an eye on next year are Northwestern, Wisconsin and Michigan.  Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald is one of the most underrated coaches in the country.  Wisconsin’s John Clay took full advantage of being the work horse last year, and expect more of the same in 2010, and watch out for the Wolverines.  This will be Rich Rodriguez’ third full season in Ann Arbor, and Tate Forcier will have a spring to put some much needed weight on.  If UM can assemble an average defense, the Big Blue will be bowling again at year’s end.

Look for the breakdown of the top two conferences in College FootBlog’s countdown in the next few days…

The NFL Draft will be a day full of fame, emotion, large pay-checks, but most importantly, answers. With the opening rounds set to kick off on April 22nd at 7:30 p.m., many fans and players alike are asking similar questions.

Will Sam Bradford be able to recover from his season ending surgery? Will Colt McCoy be able to over the pinch nerve that sidelined him for the biggest game of his collegiate career? Will Time Tebow, arguably the best college quarterback of all time, make an impact?

As much as I’d love to give you the answers to these question, I can’t. And what makes these questions so unique is that no one in the country can predict what will be the outcome of the upcoming 2010 football season. Below are the top five quarterbacks in my eyes and their numbers that justify my reasoning:

5.) Tim Tebow (Florida)- When Tebow is mentioned, the first thing that should be noted is his will to win. The guy can’t stand losing (as we learned after the SEC Championship game where he was left in tears). In his 55 games as a Florida Gator, Tebow was an impressive 48-7. However, his freshman year he was back-up to Chris Leak. It also doesn’t hurt when you rush for 2947 yards, pass for 9826 and score 110 touchdowns in four years. Despite the numbers, the collegiate Tom Brady will have a lot to prove in the NFL this upcoming season.

4.) Colt McCoy (Texas)- This may come as a shock to some people, but his stock dropped when he announced his arm was “dead”. I understand he was emotional after being knocked out of the national championship game and he should be. I just fell of the bandwagon when he made the announcement four months before the NFL draft that he couldn’t feel his arm. Luckily, it’s only a pinched nerve and he is the winning-est quarterback in college football history with 45 wins as a starter. His 112 touchdowns to 45 interceptions make him an easy pick. Let’s hope rehab can get this star back to where he needs to be.

3.) Tony Pike (Cincinnati)- This may surprise some (all) people when I tell you that Tony Pike is the third best QB in this year’s draft. Let’s see if some of his number can change your mind: 5018 yards passing, 49 touchdowns, only 20 picks and aside from getting routed by Florida, an undefeated Senior season. Plus, in the NFL you need to be durable. Well, Pike showed us he can be durable when he played through a broken non-throwing arm his senior year. Only missing a few snaps gave his team the best chance to win. I’m not saying Tony Pike for President, but don’t overlook this kid.

2.) Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)- 8148 yards passing, 60 touchdowns in three seasons will be hard to replace at Notre Dame as this Junior announced he will enter the NFL draft. With the poise to win and improving his passer rating each season, Jimmy Clausen is a lock at number two on my board of top five quarterbacks this year. His sophomore season, Clausen threw a solid 25 touchdowns, but was accompanied by 17 interceptions. Charlie Weis, the Fighting Irish Nation and Jimmy all knew this wouldn’t be a good enough recipe for success. Looking to silence all the critiques, Clausen went out and tossed 28 TDs and only four picks his junior year. I’m glad that he was able to fill the large shoes he was given by the media.

1.)Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)- This was a no brainer. Yes, his injury set him back, but Bradford is just that good. If we include the 562 yards passing from his short-lived junior season, Bradford tossed 8403 yards through the air. Go figure; Bradford only played two full seasons. With a Heisman Trophy and a National Championship appearance under his belt, the gunslinger deserves to be taken top five in April’s draft. The 88 touchdowns isn’t too bad of a resume builder either.

As stated earlier, the numbers don’t always tell the story, but these numbers are all we have. The NFL combine in Indianapolis will have a direct impact on these young players’ stock as well. It’s a shame we all have to wait until 7:00 p.m. on April 22nd to see the results. Now it’s my turn to ask you the question:

Who’s your pick?

For the first time in five years we have five players that were selected as finalists in the Heisman Trophy race. Each and every player will be in the front row, at the Nokia Center in Times Square on Saturday night, because they are the best at what they do. Every time one of these players touches the ball they electrify the game bringing it to another level. This years Heisman class has  it all: Tim Tebow-former Heisman Winner, Colt McCoy-last years runner-up, winner of the Outland, Lombardi, Nagurski, and the Bednarik Award and representing the best defensive player is Ndamukong Suh, Championship bound running back-Mark Ingram, and Stanford’s son-Toby Gerhart. All of these players helped their teams get to where they are today and has given us one of the most interesting Heisman races we’ve seen in years.

Arguably the greatest college football player of all time, Tim Tebow has broken nearly every Florida rushing and passing record. He has 2,413 yards this season along with 18 touchdowns. Tebow broke Hershel Walkers all-time SEC rushing touchdowns record against the Georgia Bulldogs this season. Tebow is one of the most powerful quarterbacks in history. He’s only experienced losses five times while attending the University of Florida, and he’s led Florida to two consecutive SEC Championship Games. Off the field, Tebow is an emotional leader for everyone around the world and is one of the most intelligent individuals you will ever meet. Until losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, Tim Tebow had led Florida to the nations longest winning streak of 22 games. There is no one better to join Archie Griffen as a two-time Heisman Trophy winner.

If you watched the BIG 12 Championship Game, you saw big number-93 busting through Texas’s offensive line and disrupting Colt McCoy. Ndamukong Suh was one of the biggest and most feared defensive players this year in college football. He sacked Texas Quarterback Colt McCoy 3 times in the BIG 12 Championship and added those to his 12 total sacks on the season. Suh had 83 tackles and 23 of those for for a loss during the 2009 season. He had batted a handful of passes down along with 3 blocked kicks this season. In 1997 Charles Woodson became the first defensive player to win the Heisman Trophy and there hasn’t been anyone more fit to join him then Ndamukong Suh from Nebraska.

Colt McCoy is now known as the winningest quarterback in all of college football. His record as a starter is 45-7, and he is undefeated on the season. Colt’s passing efficiency is out of this world with an average of 70.5% and he has thrown for 3,512 yards and 27 touchdowns this season. On national television on Thanksgiving Night, Colt led Texas over rival Texas A&M with 304 yards and four touchdowns, rushed for a career-high 175 yards, and a fifth score. He is a very humble player, but when he walks through the tunnel and puts that burnt orange jersey on, Colt McCoy becomes a leader like no other. After getting snubbed out of the Heisman last year to Oklahoma Quarterback Sam Bradford, and snubbed out of the National Championship to Oklahoma, Colt McCoy knew what he had to do this season to get back to his glorious stage. He has done nothing less. He has run for 348 yards this season. More importantly, he is the leader and the best player on a 13-0, second-ranked team that’s playing for the national championship.

One of toughest runners in college football who consistently blows over SEC defenses is only a Sophomore-Mark Ingram. Ingram has rushed for an average of 120 yards per game and has at least one touchdown in every game except one. In three different games this year, Ingram ran for over 250 yards and 189 yards, as well as, 3 touchdowns over the number one defense in the country in the SEC Championship Game-the Florida Gators. He runs through tackles and has one of the best noses for the end-zone in the country. As a sophomore, he is in the driver seat for the number one team in the country playing for the National Championship against Texas on January 7. Mark Ingram would be an excellent pick to win the Heisman and become the first Crimson Tide player to hoist the most prestigious trophy in college sports.

He leads the nation in touchdowns, rushing yards, attempts, and average. He is also enrolled in 21 credit hours at Stanford University. Toby Gerhart started off the season as one of the most underrated players for one of the worst programs in college football. He also quickly became the most consistent player out of all these finalists to put up amazing numbers week after week. He was never shut down in any game, like each of these other contenders have, at some point during the season. Two consecutive weeks in the middle of the season Toby Gerhart had to play USC and Oregon. He ran over the #9 Trojans for 178 yards and three scores, in a 55-21 Stanford beat-down that officially ended USC’s run of PAC-10 dominance. Then Gerhart put up 223 rushing yards and three touchdowns in a 51-42 victory against the #8 Oregon Ducks. The Cardinals are celebrating there first winning season since 2001 and they are finally being recognized as a powerhouse. Gerhart ran over every defense he has come up against this year. He hasn’t even had a game where he has gained less than 82 yards this season. Toby Gerhart would love to bring the Heisman Trophy to Stanford and join Jim Plunkett as the second Stanford player to win!

All of these candidates are worthy of this prestigious trophy and all  have helped their teams conclude winning seasons. Will it be Tim Tebow and his leadership, Ndamukong Suh and his power, Colt McCoy and his determination, Mark Ingram and his explosive speed, or Toby Gerhart and his bulldozing abilities?

Prediction:

1. Colt McCoy
2. Toby Gerhart
3. Ndamukong Suh
4. Mark Ingram
5. Tim Tebow

A look at the Heisman Candidates for 2009.