Bubble Burst, Bracket Breakdowns, Picks and more…
By Lance Epstein

Every year it is a challenge for the selection committee to get all the seeds correct and invite the most deserving teams to belong in the field of 65.  Most years the selection committee does a great job, but this year there are some major issues.

My first issue with the selection committee is that they left out Mississippi State who took the second overall seed in the tournament to overtime twice!  The second time, in the SEC Championship game, MSU only lost because with .01 seconds left on the clock, DeMarcus Cousins barely got off the shot to tie the game.

Furthermore, didn’t the Bulldogs beat Florida in the Southeastern Conference tournament? The Bulldogs belonged to be in the field more so than the Gators and they could have done serious damage with shot-blocker extraordinaire Jarvis Varnado.

Second, how is Baylor a number three seed? Baylor made it to the semi-finals of the Big 12 tournament, not the finals. Before the conference tournament they were looking at possibly a five seed. While they have had a great season, they might be the most overrated seed in the entire tournament.

Third, how is Clemson a seventh seed and Virginia Tech is out of the tournament? Clemson lost in the first round of the ACC conference tournament. Moreover, Clemson did not even beat Virginia Tech this season or Wake Forest. Compare the Hokies’ resume with the Tigers and they will appear to be eerily similar. Yet one is a seven and other is looking at the NIT.

Lastly, how does the best team in the country, Kansas, get the toughest bracket in the entire tournament and Duke gets a number one? It is absurd that Duke gets the play-in game winner as a number one seed.

In addition, before Championship week began, the Blue Devils were not even considered to be a number one seed ahead of either Villanova or West Virginia. Yet, West Virginia wins the best and most challenging conference in America but gets slighted for the number one seed.

Most years Duke would be worthy of a number one seed for what they have accomplished but the ACC hit a down year with Carolina and the conference not being what they have been in the past.

As for Kansas, they have probably the toughest road to get to the final four out of all the number one seeds. Michigan State is a five seed and probably could’ve been a three seed. Not only is Tom Izzo waiting in the wings for Kansas, they might face Maryland if Izzo teams fails. Before Maryland’s shocking first round upset in the ACC tourney, they were a possible two seed.

Now take a look at the bottom half of the bracket and peak at the teams they might face in the elite eight. If the seeds hold up, Kansas faces possibly the best number two seed in Ohio State. Playing against the potential Player of the Year in college basketball, Evan Turner, is a tall task for the Jayhawks. A much tougher assignment then Duke playing Villanova (I like Nova but they should’ve been a three seed.).

Besides the Buckeyes, the Big East tournament runner up Georgetown could await the Jayhawks. If G’town beat the Mountaineers and won the Big East Championship, they might have been a two seed.  Moreover the Hoyas might be playing the best basketball in the Big East conference.

Also, Kansas must watch out for underdogs Georgia Tech and Tennessee. Tennessee has the talent to upset the Jayhawks as they upset Kentucky earlier this year.

Likewise the Hawks should not sleep on Georgia Tech and Derrick Favors. We have seen star players carry their team on their back in the NCAA Tournament before; this could be one of those teams with Favors.

Here is my bracket breakdowns with the likely first round upset, best first round matchup, best matchup down the line, the dark horse(s) to win the region/Sleeper, overrated, most intriguing possible matchup after first round, best possible player vs. player matchup and the winner.

Midwest Region:

First round upset:

#10 Georgia Tech over  #7 Oklahoma State

While this is not much on an upset since it is a 10 vs. 7 game, it is still considered to be an upset. Georgia Tech’s Derrick Favors is a player that has the ability to carry a team on his back much like Carmello Anthony did with Syracuse. In addition, the Yellow Jackets have talent all over the floor with Glen Rice Jr., Gani Lawal and Iman Shumpert. The frontcourt court of Lawal and Favors can power their way to points and rebounds against any team in the country. The combination of talent will give Oklahoma State troubles. Also, Oklahoma State’s Keiton Page and James Anderson (possibly the best shooting guard in college basketball) need to produce in this game and cannot afford to get into foul trouble.

Best first round matchup:

#6 Tennessee vs. #11 San Diego State

The Vols better watch out for the Aztecs. The Aztecs have a very balanced team having four players score in double figures. Also, Steve Fisher’s team goes nine players deep, whereas the Vols bench lacks depth. SDSU forward Kawhi Leonard might be the best forward no one has heard of around the country.  His teammate junior forward Malcolm Thomas is extremely athletic and can stretch a defense. Although Bruce Pearl’s team is not your ordinary number six seed. Wayne Chism, Bobby Maze and Scott Hopson are a terrific trio that averages a combined 35 points. Along with those three, J.P. Prince has the ability to take over the game with his scoring and passing. Prince is scoring 9.3 points per game and 3.7 assists.

Sleeper/Dark horses to win Region

#5 Michigan State

It seems like every year Michigan State is the team that gets overlooked because they are usually a five seed or four seed, struggle in the Big Ten conference tourney and just naturally fly under the radar. Not this year though. Remember Michigan State was in the preseason top 10 and was ranked in the top 10 most of the year until recently. Ken Lucas is a phenomenal guard that can lockdown your best offensive player and knock down shots at the other end. Also, forward Raymar Morgan is an physical forward that likes to bang with the big boys.

#3 Georgetown

Like I said earlier, Georgetown might be playing the best basketball out of any team in the Big East. Greg Monroe and Austin Freeman are a magnificent tandem but their role players of Chris Wright, Jason Clark and Julian Vaughn are just as vital and potent. The ability of Hoyas’ Princeton offense to be run with their athleticism, size and strength will give teams like Ohio State troubles. As for Kansas, the Hoyas starting lineup matchup very well player for player with the Jayhawks excluding their bench. If the Hoyas can stay out of foul trouble against Kansas, they have a chance.

Overrated:

#4 Maryland

I like Greivis Vasquez and the head coaching experience of Gary Williams. Unfortunately for the Terrapins, they got placed in a very tough bracket. I do believe they will beat the Houston Cougars in the first round but lose to Michigan State in the second round. Vasquez has the capability of carrying Maryland but Ken Lucas has the ability to take him out of his game. I do not believe any of the other Terrapins have the ability to carry the team to victory.

Most intriguing possible matchup after first round

#3 Georgetown vs. #1 Kansas (2nd Georgetown vs. Ohio State aka Monroe vs. Turner)

Kansas has clearly has the best starting five in the country and maybe the deepest benches as well. The inside and outside combo of Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich could be the best in the country. Collins has the experience will play a big role sometime in this tournament; it might come against the Hoyas. As for the Hoyas, Greg Monroe is the guy that could carry the Hoyas to a National Title. He can score, pass, dribble, rebound and defend any player in the country. Monroe is averaging 16.1 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.2 blocks and 1.5 steals per game. Not only that the Hoyas secondary option of Austin Freeman is not bad either. The team’s leading scorer at 16.7 points, can knock down shots from anywhere on the court as he is shooting 45 percent.

Best possible player vs. player matchup

Evan Turner, Ohio State versus Greg Monroe, Georgetown

The Winner:

#1 Kansas Jayhawks

This is either going to be the Kansas team that rolls to a National Championship or be like the team that got upset by the young upstart Arizona Wildcats in 1997. Look and compare the 1997 squad and the 2010 squad. You will see there are many similarities. Both dominated the Big 12, steamrolled threw the Big 12 tournament and were the number one overall seed. I would not be shocked if Michigan State or the Hoyas knocks off the Jayhawks. Sherron Collins is the key to the Jayhawks. If a team can disrupt him and create turnovers, Kansas could be in trouble.

West Region:

First Round Upset:

#13 Murray State over #4 Vanderbilt

Watch out for the Racers, they have the potential to make a Sweet 16 run.  The Racers are a Cinderella type team. You might not have heard of the Racers now but I guarantee you will be by the end of the first day of the tournament you will. Murray State has a very balanced starting five. Four of their five starters are scoring in double figures and that balance set a school record of 30 wins. Do not overlook bench stud Isiah Canaan. Canaan led the Racers to the promise land in the OVC Tournament as has he dropped 16 points in the championship game.

Best first round matchup:

#12 UTEP vs. #5 Butler (I’d take UTEP in an upset as well)

It seems like every year the NCAA selection committee has the Bulldogs playing another mid-major in the NCAA tournament. This year is no different. UTEP guard Randy Culpepper can score in bunches. Culpepper is averaging 18 points a game while shooting 47.3 percent from the field. Along with Culpepper, the Miners have an inside presence with Derrick Caracter. Caracter, the Louisville transfer, is averaging 13.8 points and 8 rebounds a game. While I think Butler has a terrific team and have won 20 in a row, the Miners are that typical 12 seed that is lurking and ready to come up with a big upset. Remember earlier this season Butler’s Matt Howard struggled guarding Hoya forward Greg Monroe. So the inside game of Caracter causes some of the same types of concerns.

Dark Horses to win region/Sleeper:

#7 BYU Cougars

The Cougars have one of the best players in the country that casual fans have not heard of. Guard Jimmer Fredette drained 49 points against he Arizona Wildcats in the McKale Center in December. Then in the quarterfinals of the Mountain West Conference tournament he put 45 points up on TCU. Fredette is a 6-2 guard that is averaging 21.7 points per game and shoots the three at a whopping 44.8 percent. Along with his long-range ability, he doesn’t mind going after the boards, as he averages 3.1 boards per game. Along with Fredette, guards Jackson Emery, and forward Jonathan Taverari are experienced saavy veterans. Both give the Cougars NCAA tournament experience. Both are very capable of taking some of the pressure off of Fredette.

Overrated:

#3 Pittsburgh Panthers

While the Panthers are a good team, they are a seeded a little higher than I would have liked. Jamie Dixon has done an absolutely fabulous job this season considering he lost his best two players from last year in Dejuan Blair and Lavance Fields. I just do not think Pittsburgh has enough offense to make it out of the first weekend of the dance. Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker are a great duo in the backcourt, but Pitt struggles at times to put the ball in the hole. Do not be surprised if a Xavier team (might have been a top 10 team if Sean Miller stayed) upsets the Panthers in round two.

Most intriguing possible matchup after first round:

#6 Xavier Musketeers versus #3 Pittsburgh Panthers

Xavier has a talented roster. Guard Jordan Crawford can take the game over at anytime. Crawford averages near 20 points per game. Along with Crawford, Xavier has a legitimate center in Jason Love. Love, a senior, who can dominate games at times. He is averaging 11.9 points per game, 8.6 rebounds and 1.5 blocks. Pittsburgh is a physical team but Xavier is extremely underrated and might be able to pull off another Cinderella run.

Best possible player vs. player matchup

Jimmer Fredette, BYU versus Jacob Pullen Kansas State

The Winner:

#1 Syracuse Orange

Jim Boeheim is thanking the selection committee for not putting any other Big East teams in the top of half their bracket (since most have begun to figure out their 2-3 zone). The toughest possible matchup for the Cuse is Kansas State. But if center Arinze Onuaku is healthy, which Cuse officials says he is, they can beat the Wildcats. The Syracuse 2-3 zone will wreck havoc in this bracket because none of the teams besides Pitt have consistently played against that type of zone. The Orange have five players scoring in double figures led by Wes Johnson who is scoring 16 and pulling down 8.4 rebounds a game. The one player the Orange must keep out of foul trouble is guard Andy Rautins. If he struggles to distribute the ball like he did against Louisville and Georgetown, the Orange could be ripe for the picking.

East Region:

First Round Upset:

#11 Washington Huskies over #6 Marquette Golden Eagles

The Huskies should not be an 11 seed in this tournament. Down the stretch the Huskies have won 10 of their last 12 games and upset number one seed California in the Pac-10 tournament. Lorenzo Romar has his Huskies playing their best ball at the best possible time. At the defensive end they are creating a ton of turnovers with their speed and athleticism. Forward Quincy Pondexter has the ability to shoot the lights out and carry the Huskies on his back for a round or two. Furthermore, Isaiah Thomas has been playing very well at the point guard position. Do not be shocked if the Huskies make a Sweet 16 run.

Best First Round Matchup:

#5 Temple  Owls vs. #12 Cornell Big Red

We can thank the committee for one thing, for great five versus twelve matchups. Temple is the best team from the Atlantic-10 conference and has a three-headed monster. Bruising forward Lavoy Allen is a dependable double-double as he is averaging 11.7 points per game and 10.9 boards. Guards Juan Fernandez and Ryan Brooks combine for nearly 27 points, seven rebounds and six assist a game. Both Brooks and Fernandez have good size in the backcourt (both are 6-4), both can run the point, which could spell trouble for Cornell. However do not sleep on Cornell, they were the first team from the Ivy League to be ranked in 12 years (Princeton).  Center Jeff Foote is tall enough and strong enough to control Allen inside the paint. The best matchup that Big red will exploit is forward Ryan Wittman. Wittman is a 6-7 forward, who shoots 42 percent from three-point land and can take his defender off the dribble.

Dark Horses/Sleeper to Win the Region:

#8 Texas Longhorns

It was not too long ago that the Longhorns were the number one team in the country. Since then they have fallen on hard times and even fell out of the top 25. Understanding that, this team is talented enough to beat the Kentucky Wildcats. Center Dexter Pittman has the size, strengths and skills necessary to shutdown DeMarcus Cousins. Damion James has the ability to go off at anytime (18 ppg, 10.4 reb) and has the talent to shutdown guard Eric Bledsoe. Point guard Avery Bradley is not as good as Wall but is capable of leading the Longhorns to an upset. This might be the most dangerous seed slotted seventh and higher.

#3 New Mexico Lobos

You might not have known this but the Lobos were ranked in the top 10 for most of the season. The best point guard in the country, not named John Wall, can be found on the Lobos. Darington Hobson is a first round point guard that can do it all. He is averaging 16.2 points, 9.2 rebounds and 4.6 assists. This might be the player who has a coming out party in this tournament (very similar to Stephen Curry two years ago for Davidson). Under head coach Steve Alford guidance the Lobos can beat West Virginia and Kentucky.

Overrated:

#7 Clemson Tigers

Why are the number seven seeded Tigers overrated? Let me count the ways. First, they should have been closer to not making the tournament then being a seven seed. Second, besides Trevor Booker no one else on that team scares opponents. Third, they have lost 3 of their last 5 and were eliminated by North Carolina State in the first round of the ACC tourney. L

Most intriguing possible matchup after first round:

#1 Kentucky vs. #2 West Virginia

This is the best possible matchup in this bracket. To be honest, Kentucky and West Virginia should both be number one seeds. West Virginia’s senior forward De’Sean Butler has a thing for the dramatics. During the Big East tourney he twice hit the game winning shot to advance and win the Big East title for the Mountaineers. Butler is an All-American player that can score at will, rebound and distribute the basketball. Along with Butler, the Mountaineers have forwards Kevin Jones and Devin Ebanks that can really attack the glass. Together they combine for 15 rebounds a game. However, guards Joe Mazzulla and Darryl Bryant must play better then they did against Georgetown to have success against Kentucky. John Wall might be the number one pick in the draft. His quickness and ability to attack the paint will be problems for West Virginia. On top of that, Patrick Patterson and DeMarcus Cousins can negate the inside presences that West Virginia brings.

Best possible player vs. player matchup

John Wall, Kentucky vs. Darington, Hobson

The Winner:

#1 Kentucky Wildcats

I know I have gone chalk in the first three regions and there is a reason for that, these are the three superior teams in college basketball. While they are prone to an upset, it is not very likely to happen. Wall, Cousins and Patterson are the main reason for Kentucky being as great as they are. Despite that fact, there is going to come a time in this tourney were someone else is going to need to step up for Coach Cal. That guy will be Eric Bledsoe. The less heralded star of the backcourt will have his opportunities in this tourney. Teams will try to force the ball out of Walls hands and into Bledsoe’s. The lesser known Bledsoe will become the unsung hero sometime during the madness.

South Region:

First Round Upset:

#13 Sienna Saints over #4 Purdue Boilermakers

If Purdue did not lose Robbie Hummel to a torn ACL, they would be looking at a number two or one seed. Now they are looking at a first round exit. Sienna is a veteran laden team, which has four players scoring over 13 points per game. Forwards Alex Franklin and Ryan Rossiter will create matchup problems for the Boilermakers’ frontcourt without Hummel. Both are tenacious on the boards; Rossiter is grabbing a whopping 11.1 and Franklin is pulling down eight. While point guard Ronald Moore is not a scorer, he is the engine that makes Sienna go. Moore’s senior leadership at the point, knack for penetrating and find the open man makes Sienna a serious contender to get to the Sweet 16. This season Moore is averaging 7.8 assists.

Best First Round Matchup:

#8 California Golden Bears vs. #9 Louisville Cardinals

Before the season began Louisville and California were considered to be top 20 teams. Louisville has been inconsistency ay all year.  One game they look like world-beaters and the next like a NIT team. A month ago, the Cardinals were on the outside looking in. Then the Cardinals reeled off two wins against number one Syracuse. As for the Golden Bears, in the beginning of the season they struggled because of health issues. The Bears finally got healthy and have been scorching hot down the stretch. The best matchup in this game is between Louisville point guard Edgar Sosa and Pac-10 Player of the Year Jerome Randle. Randle is an explosive scoring point guard that can hit from anywhere on the floor. However, Sosa has quickness to keep Randle in check. Ultimately, the player that will be the difference maker in this game is Theo Robertson. Robertson crashes the boards, goes inside and outside. I do not believe the Cardinals have an answer for him.

Dark Horses/Sleeper to Win the Region:

#6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Just four weeks ago Notre Dame saw star player Luke Harangody go down with a possible season-ending knee injury. Instead of folding like most analyst thought, Notre Dame went on an improvable run. Not only did they win six of seven games down the stretch, they got their All American back. The Fighting Irish are a dangerous team without Harangodt. With Harangody, they are a Final Four caliber team. Even if Harangody has an off game, Notre Dame has proved they could win without his presence.

Overrated:

#1 Duke Blue Devils

It is not that I am a Duke hater, but the Dukies should not be a number one seed. West Virginia should be the one in this bracket and Duke should be the number two seed. Subsequently Villanova would be moved to the East bracket as a number two seed. While the Blue Devils have one of their better teams in years, they still are not as athletic as you would like. Interestingly though, the Blue Devils have won 82 percent of their games as a number one seed.

#3 Baylor Bears

First off, the Baylor Bears finished tied for second in their conference behind Kansas so they a good team. But how are they three seed when they are 1-4 against the top three teams in the Big 12 conference and a mediocre non-conference resume. Second, the Texas A&M Aggies have exact same record against the top three in the conference, a similar non-conference schedule and made it just as far as Baylor did in the Big 12 tournament. Yet they are a five seed and the Bears are a three seed. I do not get why Baylor is a three seed and not a five, but do not be surprised if the Bears do make it to the second weekend and even the Final Four due to the weak South region. Baylor is overrated as three seed but have the talent to match up well with Duke and Nova. Even though they should be a five seed, they can extort Ekpe Udoh’s size and physicality against Nova’s smallish lineup. And they are more athletic and have a deeper team then Duke.

Most intriguing possible matchup after first round:

Duke vs. 8/9 Winner

The winner of the Cal/Louisville game has a great chance against the Blue Devils. Cal has the athletes that shoot from all over the floor. Patrick Christopher and Theo Robertson might be too athletic for Duke forward’s Kyle Singler and Miles Plumlee. Also the Bears have a distinct advantage at center with Jamal Boykins over Brian Zoubek. Boykins has a bulk and quickness advantage over Zoubek. As for the Cardinals, if they put it together for 40 minutes like they did against Syracuse, they can beat anyone on any given day.

Best possible player vs. player matchup

Scottie Reynolds, Villanova vs. Jon Scheyer, Duke

The Winner:

#2 Villanova Wildcats

While Villanova come into the tournament slumping, losing five of their last seven games, they still have the talent to be a Final Four team. I believe Duke will struggle to get through the top half of their bracket. Conversely, Nova will have its hands full as well if Notre Dame keeps playing like they have been. Nova cannot overlook a possible matchup up with the dangerous Richmond Spiders. Despite all this, Villanova has something that every other team wishes they had, which is Final Four experience. Senior point guard Scottie Reynolds has a knack for coming up big when the Wildcats need him the most. His backcourt mates Reggie Redding, Corey Stokes and Corey Fisher all have the ability to stroke the basketball and take over games. The only downfall for the Wildcats is that they have no true inside game. Freshman Mouphtaou Yarou is the only real size the Wildcats have and is not a polished product. On the other hand, if he continues to rebound like he has down the stretch (only bright spot over the last three weeks) and the other four guards Nova regain their swagger then watch out.

National Semi-final:

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Villanova Wildcats

Kentucky has the one point guard in the country in John Wall that can shutdown and bother Reynolds. Additionally, Patterson and Cousins will be licking their chops if they play the undersized Wildcats.

Syracuse Orange vs. Kansas Jayhawks

This might be the best game of the tournament: two historic programs, great coaches who are going to be hall of famers and terrific defenses. The difference between the two teams will be Kansas’ Final Four experience and leadership of point guard Sherron Collins.

National Championship:

Kansas Jayhawks vs. Kentucky Wildcats

It is rare that us fans are treated to a Championship game between the best two teams in the country. Like in 2008 when Bill Self got the best John Calipari’s Memphis Tigers, the Jayhawks will do the same to his Kentucky Wildcats and will reign supreme on top of the basketball world.

Champion:

Kansas Jayhawks

Player of the Tournament:

Sherron Collins

One Shining Moment:

Sienna Saints march to Sweet 16