Author Archives | nickomattar

All-American Predictions

Who do you see as making the All-American First Team this year? A lot of different players have appeared on various lists, though this would be my list as of now:

Cole Aldrich
DeMarcus Cousins
Wesley Johnson
Evan Turner
Sherron Collins

I have never been a John Wall fan, and I do not like the fact that he turns the ball over five times per game. I also think that there are some quality big men other than Cole Aldrich that are deserving, but he has put together such a great overall stat line that I have trouble finding a big man better than him.

What do you guys think? Who else should be in contention for a spot as an All-American?

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Xavier: On the right side of the bubble (for now)

In the third and final part of my three-part series, I examine the Xavier Musketeers, who won at Florida Saturday night to add a signature non-conference to their tournament resume.

The broadcasters loved referring to Saturday’s game between Xavier and Florida as a potential 8 vs 9 match-up in the NCAA tournament. It was one of those rare non-conference, late-season games that had big implications for both teams. Neither team was safely off the bubble, and neither team was out of the tournament, either. But it was Xavier that showed the ability to walk into Gainesville and grab a victory to improve their overall record to 17-7 going into the final few weeks of the season.

Obviously, this Xavier team has flaws. This is not the Elite 8 team from 2006, but this is still a team that, with a few more wins, should be able to lock up an NCAA tournament bid, regardless of their performance in the Atlantic 10 tournament. And the Atlantic 10 is no pushover this year. As many as four teams could get bids this year, with Dayton, Temple, Rhode Island, Richmond, and Charlotte all making late-season pushes in addition to Xavier (there is no way all six teams will get in, even with the Pac 10 having such a down year). But the Musketeers have many flaws, as evidence from their seven losses this season.

The biggest problem I see with this team is fact that there is no post presence outside of Jason Love. With a monster game at Florida, Love showed everybody that Xavier will only go as far he takes them. Jordan Crawford may be the best scorer on the team (and probably the Atlantic 10 Player of the Year), but a lot of those guards are in similar molds and can get hot at any time from the field. The big thing is that Love needs to keep defenses honest with consistent post play. After scoring 14 first-half points, the Florida defense had to adjust to the big man, which then opened up opportunities for the rest of the Musketeers to hit shots and get into the lane. Crawford scored 12 points in the second half, and while some of his shots were off of isolation plays, at the same time the Gator defense was kept honest because Love was always a threat to score in the paint or grab offensive rebounds.

When Xavier is knocking down the long ball, they are very tough to stop, but when the shots aren’t falling, it’s often Crawford who is left to pick up the pieces. Guys like Terrelle Holloway, Dante Jackson, and Brad Redford are all solid guards, but all are also fairly one-dimensional. If Love can get going in the paint, there will be many more open opportunities for those guys to get good looks, thus giving them a great chance to heat up from beyond the arc.

The other role player I have left out here is Jamel McLean, who also had a great game at Florida. He seemingly pulled down an offensive rebound every time down the floor, as he corralled a game-high 13 (5 offensive). If Love cannot get going, then McLean is the next best thing. Though he is not as big or strong as Love, he is more athletic and is capable of playing above the rim, while Love is scrappy and stays on his feet. In a perfect world, both of these big men would cause opposing defenses to alter their strategies…

In Xavier’s motion offense, all players have adapted to the “pass-and-screen-away” mentality, and that will continue to work for this team as long as the scoring remains balanced. Love has had a solid season thus far, as has his team. If he remains active into the postseason, this team won’t only get an NCAA tournament bid, but they could surprise a few teams once they are there.

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Purdue: Primed for a long tournament run

In Part II of my three-part series, I examine Purdue, who could potentially lock up a number 1 seed if they continue to dominate the Big Ten. They are coming off of a huge road win in East Lansing, where they held off fellow Big Ten stalwart Michigan State.

JaJuan Johnson and the Boilermakers are looking better than ever as the regular season winds down (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

There are three blemishes on the Purdue Boilermakers’ schedule. From January 6 to January 16, they lost at Wisconsin, against Ohio State, and at Northwestern. All three losses were by a combined 19 points, and in those games Purdue was up against some of the hottest shooters in the conference. Whether it was Evan Turner returning from a back injury to essentially win it for the Buckeyes, or Michael Thompson keying a huge run in Evanston, the Boilermakers had a terrible stretch of games for 10 days in the middle of the season.

Yet, now they are 20-3 overall and a mere half game out of first place in the conference after taking down Michigan State on the road this week. After pulling away in the first half to take a 14-point halftime lead, the Spartans came back to make it interesting, pulling within three with under fourĀ  minutes to play in the game. But the Boilermakers held on with their staggering defense and offensive cohesion, as they slowed down the game and pulled away by scoring the game’s next nine points.

Being able to weather the storm and keep your composure is one of the keys to success in the NCAA Tournament, because just about every team you play will have some kind of run in them. With Purdue, they have been able to hold down opponents as they have made their runs. Recently, Purdue found themselves down three points at Indiana before cracking down and then taking the lead for good in the final four minutes. It may have been a narrow victory over a weak conference foe, but at the same time it proved that the Boilermakers can finish games – something a lot of top teams have not been able to do (see: West Virginia at Pittsburgh Friday night).

A team that is built like Purdue makes me want to give them the edge over a team like Kentucky, which relies on young, quick players that love to get out and run the floor. Purdue, on the other hand, is a bigger team that is fairly balanced on offense, with pure scorers like E’Twaun Moore and Robbie Hummel, and defensive specialists such as Chris Kramer and JaJuan Johnson. Even though there are only three players on the team averaging more than six points per game, those players on the bench are capable of coming into the game at any time and providing a spark, and those that do not score make up for it at the defensive end.

Purdue and Michigan State are clearly the class of the Big Ten this year, but after the Boilermakers’ big victory Tuesday they gained a slight edge over the Spartans. They will also probably move into the top 5 nationally, where I expect them to stay for at least the remainder of the regular season. Though anything can happen in the Big Ten Tournament, I think it is safe to say that Purdue is able to handle all challenges, and I expect them to make one of the longest tourney runs in school history.

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Saint Mary’s: On the outside looking in

In Part I of my three-part series, I examine the Gaels of Saint Mary’s, who last night missed their final opportunity for a signature regular season win. Barring a big run through the WCC tournament and a victory over Gonzaga in the conference championship, the Gaels will not make it to the NCAA Tournament.

The West Coast Conference has always been considered a mid-major conference with a major college basketball program at the top. Mark Few and the Gonzaga Bulldogs have won 20 games in nine straight seasons (or something to that effect) and have been the class of the conference. But last night, Saint Mary’s had a golden opportunity to lay claim that they, for at least this season, were on the same level as Gonzaga.

And for the first half, the Gaels proved to be exactly that. Eight minutes into the game, and Saint Mary’s was firing on all cylinders. WCC Player of the Year candidate Omar Samha

n was putting on a clinic in the post and the long balls were dropping for the young guards, who showed a great amount of grit and moxy throughout most of the first half. At the half, Gonzaga only had a three point lead thanks to a smooth 3-ball by Matt Bouldin at the buzzer. But by the end of the game, the Zags had pulled away convincingly, finally winning by 19 points.

This season has been a fairly big success for Saint Mary’s, which now has four losses – two to Gonzaga, and then one to Vanderbilt and USC. But the most impressive victories the

Gaels have are at Oregon and at Utah State, if you even consider those “signature wins”. Thursday was also their first true “road” loss, which sounds impressive, but that is largely because beyond those two aforementioned games, there really have been no tough tests for the Gaels.

As far as personnel is concerned, there is no doubt that Omar Samhan is one of the best big men in the country. He looked simply unstoppable against Gonzaga big man Robert Sacre in the first half Thursday night, but then he disappeared in the second half as he only scored five second half points. He finished with his average of 21, but for the most part looked fairly flustered

Matthew Dellavedova and the Gaels were thoroughly outplayed Thursday night in Spokane (Photo courtesy of Washington Post)

as the game got out of hand late.

And as Samhan goes, so too do the Gaels, who completely fell apart after halftime. Second-leading scorer Mickey McConnell failed to score at all, as Gonzaga continuously kept him in check and only allowed him to take five shots. Point guard Matthew Dellavedova looked solid in the first half, but was continuously harrassed by the bigger Gonzaga guards in the second half

as the Australian freshman finished with five turnovers and four fouls. And big man Ben Allen, who is listed as a center in the program, continuously strayed outside the arc, where he was 1-7. Allen, who was in foul trouble much of the game, began the game guarding Gonzaga freshman Elias Harris but was completely thrashed by the versatile big man. Harris finished with a team-high 19 points, including one emphatic fast-break dunk that Allen could only watch, as he played most of the second half with four fouls.

But if you have watched any Saint Mary’s game other than Thursday’s, you know that a report like the one above is rare. Usually, every one of those players is shooting a great perce

ntage from beyond the arc, while Samhan dominates an entire game (instead of his one strong half Thursday). In fact, McConnell shoots over 50% from beyond the arc on the season, but was completely shut down at Gonzaga. Both Australian players, Allen and Dellavedova, are generally successful in outrunning and out-shooting their opponents, but Thursday night was dictated by the physical play of the Zags. By continuously bumping cutters on defense and never giving shooters an ounce of daylight, the Bulldogs exposed every one of the Gaels’ flaws and took away their greatest strength.

It was a pair of games just like this last season that doomed Saint Mary’s tournament chances, too. A blowout at the hands of Santa Clara and then a home loss to Gonzaga proved to be the turning point, as the Gaels were the first team left out of the NCAA Tournament. There is no reason to believe this season will be any different.

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Don’t sleep on these guys

Going forward into the final stretch of the regular season, many teams have found an identity as conference tournaments loom. Those teams that have found their identities and play well within themselves are the teams that will be very dangerous when the Big Dance rolls around. So let’s look at a few teams that may be overlooked next month.

Gonzaga
I wrote about them earlier in the season, and I still believe they are going to be overlooked come tourney time. They may be ranked #11, but every year people write them off as soon as they encounter an athletic team from a BCS conference. But this is one of the best teams Mark Few has ever put on the court, with physical players across the board and a great balance between shooters like Matt Bouldin, slashers like Stephen Gray, and big men like Robert Sacre.

Vanderbilt
I have always been a little sour on the Commodores, but their thrashing of Tennessee at home earlier in the week has me finally believing in them. They aren’t the most athletic team, but they gather a lot of offensive rebounds, have a tremendous leader in Jermaine Beal, and just play hard-nosed defense.

UNLV
Even though they just lost to conference rival New Mexico, the Runnin’ Rebels just seem to find ways to win games. Of their four losses this season, only Wednesday’s loss to New Mexico (10 points) and a loss to USC (11 points) have been by double digits. On a team laden with transfer students, this team plays with a chip on its shoulder, and I fully expect them to kick it up another notch in the coming month.

Other teams to look out for: Florida State, Cornell, Saint Mary’s

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Who will get those top seeds?

The college basketball season is 2/3 over, and as many as 10 teams can possibly claim top seeds when it comes to Selection Sunday on March 14. As of the Feb. 8 rankings, the top ten teams in the nation were all possibilities for number 1 seeds: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, West Virginia, Purdue, Georgetown, Duke, Kansas State, and Michigan State.

The Big East is pretty much a lock to get at least 1 of these spots, with Syracuse and Villanova sitting in the best position. But Georgetown and West Virginia are definite possibilities. The Hoyas are coming off a huge victory against Villanova and have opportunities to crack the top 5 with games against Syracuse and at West Virgina. The Mountaineers have Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Connecticut, and a season finale at Villanova to make their case. And even if both teams don’t make big runs late in the season, there is still the conference tournament.

As for the Big Ten, Purdue and Michigan State are in tough spots, but can still make runs to get into the top 5. The two show down Tuesday night in East Lansing, and then meet again on February 27. However, MSU’s only other big game is against Ohio State, which limits their ability to make a big climb barring a conference tournament run. Purdue, who is in a slightly better position, may lock up that top seed with two victories against the Spartans. They also have games against Ohio State and Illinois, both whom will probably make it to the Big Dance.

The Big 12, which I picked as the best conference in college basketball at the onset of the season, is slightly below that mainly because of the downfall of Texas. But out of the ruins has come Kansas State, who recently lost a heartbreaker to Kansas. The Jayhawks are pretty much a lock for a top seed at this point, but their in-state rivals can join them with a string of victories down the stretch. If they can go into Lawrence and win, they will be in a good position going into the Big 12 tournament, where it will take a few big victories to get that top seed. If anybody can run the table from here on out, it’s Kansas State with their weak schedule and just one big game looming.

The SEC and ACC are in a slighly different position. Kentucky has a great chance to get a 1-seed, and they have Tennessee and Vanderbilt in pursuit. But Duke only has Georgia Tech following them now that Clemson and UNC have fallen off. The Blue Devils are, in my opinion, the least likely to get a top seed out of the top 10 teams mainly because they still have to play in Chapel Hill and College Park, which are two of the toughest places to play. If Duke can put together several big games and a conference tournament run, it is not out of the question, but running the table in the ACC is extremely difficult with the home court advantage that so many teams have.

When it is all said and done, I expect the top seeds to be Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, and Purdue. The Big East may be unstoppable, but they will continue to beat each other up, and as a result a few teams will fall out of that top tier. Villanova has

already dropped one this weekend to Georgetown, and I do not see West Virginia being able to sustain their composure through March. Both teams will probably make big runs in the NCAA tournament, but before then they will run into some trouble.

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