Archive | October, 2011

2011 College Basketball Preview – Part II

In Part 2 of my 2011 College Basketball Preview, I examine four mid-major teams that have a great chance at becoming the Butler or VCU of this upcoming season.

Over the past decade, a number of schools have come to define the term “mid-major” in college basketball. Gonzaga is always a threat to play deep into March and had dominated the WCC every year. Butler played in the past two national championship games. And VCU and George Mason have made the CAA a noteworthy conference by making improbable Final Four runs in the past five years. But this season will almost certainly bring rise to at least one mid-major that America is not yet familar with. Here are the teams I think can capture and break hearts in 2012.

Detroit Titans (Horizon)
Butler has always been the class of the Horizon League, but Detroit has a great chance to not only win the conference tournament, but also make a run in the Big Dance. The Titans have arguably the two most talented players in the conference in forward Eli Holman and point guard Ray McCallum Jr. McCallum was the newcomer of the year last season, and Holman averaged nearly a double-double. Don’t forget about senior wing Chase Simon, who averaged 13.5 points per game last season. With such a diverse and talented core, Detroit has all the tools to do damage late in the season.

But the Horizon League is not weak, by any stretch. Butler and Wisconsin-Milwaukee will both be competitive, though they each lost substantial pieces to graduation. The Bulldogs will depend heavily on big man Andrew Smith and wing Ronald Nored, as well as highly-touted freshman Roosevelt Jones. Milwaukee, on the other hand, returns guard Kaylon Willams and forward Tony Meier but, similar to Butler, has many holes to plug.

Wichita State Shockers (Missouri Valley)
The Missouri Valley Conference is barely a mid-major anymore, but if the Shockers advance beyond the second round of the NCAA Tournament, it will be considered a… shock. Great things were expected last season, but Wichita State had to settle for an NIT championship. Every NIT matchup was a blowout, including an uneventful final against Alabama. Big man Garret Stutz will be counted on to patrol the paint for a team that lost a huge chunk of their interior scoring and rebounding. Ben Smith should see an increased role, as well – the 6’5″ forward won the conference’s Sixth Man Award last season. But the team will go as far as guard Toure’ Murry takes them – he has won the past two conference Defensive Player of the Year awards, and is the team’s returning leader in all major statistical categories.

The rest of the Valley is going to be incredibly tough: Creigton, Indiana State, and Northern Iowa will all be fighting for the conference title, but none appear as complete as the Shockers, which have all of the intangibles. Charles Koch Arena yields the greatest home court advantage in the MVC, and the team has a large chip on it’s shoulder after getting snubbed by the NCAA Selection Committee in March. If Wichita State plays anything like they did in the NIT last season, they will be incredibly difficult to beat, especially at home.

UCF Knights (Conference USA)
The average college basketball fan only knows about Central Florida because of the breakout season by Marcus Jordan in 2011. But the team’s strengths go far beyond Air Jordan’s son. In fact, people seem to overlook Keith Clanton, who was an all-conference performer last season. At 6’8″ and almost 250lbs, Clanton is one of the most overlooked big men in the country. He shot 53% from the field last season, and improved over the course of the season. In fact, in the 2011 CBI Semifinal, Clanton was 9-12 from the field and 7-8 from the line in 34 minutes. Look for more of the same this season. Plus, sophomore Isaiah Sykes should provide a solid second scoring threat from the wing – he is super quick and not afraid to shoot the ball. And look out for transfers Tristan Spurlock and Josh Crittle;  both stand 6’8″ and will bang inside with the best of the them.

Conference USA will be a difficult conference to win, however. Memphis is the perennial favorite, and Marshall has emerged as a dark horse contender. But UCF finally has the talent to compete with the Tigers. Three transfers from major schools (Spurlock, Crittle, and Marcus’s brother Jeff) bring a swagger to Orlando that has been missing for years. Even if Memphis runs away with C-USA, UCF will have talent and probably the resume to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, where they will be a very dangerous opponent.

Akron Zips (MAC)
Few remember that the Zips actually played in two of the past three NCAA Tournaments. The reason is because of the low seeding and subsequent matchup problems posed by teams like Notre Dame, who won by 13 points in the second round of last season’s tournament. But the six upperclassmen on this Akron roster have been there, done that, and are ready to play deeper into March. Skinny but agile 7-footer Zeke Marshall stands alone in the big man department, but will have a ton of help on the perimeter. Nikola Cvetinovic will need to score and help Marshall on the glass, and freshman Nick Harney is expected to help shoulder the load at forward, as well. In the backcourt, UMBC transfer Chauncey Gilliam joins 5’9″ point guard Alex Abreu and Brett McClanahan as they attempt to dominate a conference that is often dictated by guard play. But Marshall is the X-factor for this team, as he has performed below expectations in his first two years in Akron. If he can show the ability that made him a high-caliber recruit in high school, then Akron will be in the driver seat in the MAC.

Don’t count out the rest of the MAC, however. Western and Central Michigan each return several strong pieces and will give Akron all they can handle. Kent State may be the early conference favorite, having shown well in the NIT last season before losing to Colorado in a tight quarterfinals contest. Yet, it was Akron that played in the Big Dance in March, and they seem to always peak at the right time of the year. With a grueling non-conference schedule ahead of them, the Zips may look lackluster early on, but they should once again surge through the MAC. As long as they don’t find themselves as a #15 seed again, Akron will be extremely competitive in the NCAA Tournament.

Other teams to watch: Long Island Blackbirds (NEC), Harvard Crimson (Ivy League), and Florida Atlantic Owls (Sun Belt)

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2011 College Basketball Preview – Part I

In Part 1 of my 4-part 2o11 college basketball preview, I exam four teams that have a great chance to play in New Orleans at the end of March.
This is my first post since my review of the 2011 National Championship game where Connecticut took down Butler in a boring finale to an otherwise thrilling NCAA Tournament. Upsets were plentiful, two mid-majors played their way to the Final Four, and the star power of King Kemba Walker led the Huskies to the national crown. Overall, the tournament was the most intense I have seen in the last decade.
Yet now is a new year – players like Walker have departed for the NBA (insert your best lockout joke here) and others like Harrison Barnes have returned to school to bring a national title to campus. Barnes and the Tar Heels appear to be the preseason favorites to win it all, garnering the top spot in all major preseason polls. And that’s where I begin my list:
North Carolina Tar Heels

Biggest Strength: Scoring
There is no denying this team can put up a lot of points. Whether it’s Barnes doing everything, Tyler Zeller on the block, or freshman P.J. Hairston shooting the 3-ball, there are so many ways this team can score the basketball. Don’t forget freshman Kendall Marshall, who came on strong towards the end of the season when he was inserted into the starting lineup. And freshman James McAdoo will provide depth at the 4-spot.
Biggest Weakness: 3-point Shooting/Defense
For a team full of superstars and NBA-caliber players, UNC really does not shoot the ball well from beyond the arc (or defend it, for that matter). Last season, they finished near the bottom of the ACC in 3-point shooting, and both Marshall and Barnes are susceptible to defensive lapses. Two players can provide help in those departments, though: Dexter Strickland and Reggie Bullock. Strickland is a lockdown defender who will undoubtedly be called on to defend the quickest and most talented opposing guards. Bullock, on the other hand, is returning from a knee injury and should provide the long range shooting that the Tar Heels need. Don’t be surprised if both of those players see big minutes down the stretch in close games, as they both add dimensions to the UNC game that is otherwise absent.
X-Factor: John Henson
Standing 6’10″, 210lbs, Henson is not the most intimidating defensive presence at first glance. But with a 7’4″ wingspan and freakish athleticism, the junior big man is the best shot blocker in the ACC. His interior defense and rebounding skills are undeniable, but in order for the Heels to truly dominate the country and win a national title, he will need to shed the “soft” label that has stuck with him for the last two years. On a team that lacks physical strength (Zeller is the only player who weighs more than 220lbs, while Duke has seven) Henson must become a force on the block at both ends of the floor. He showed flashes of greatness last season with a nifty hook and solid 15-foot corner jump shot, but he must be able to finish inside… and with authority. If he can do that, it will take pressure off Zeller, who is the only true center on the roster.
Overall: UNC is not a perfect team, and they shouldn’t be compared to past teams like Tyler Hansbrough’s 2009 squad. Instead, they should be seen as an athletic, deep team that will fight with Duke for the top spot in a weak ACC. I expect them to drop a few early games, but then roll through conference play and peak at the perfect time – the postseason.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Biggest Strength: Defense
It’s difficult for me to pinpoint an aspect of Ohio State’s defense that stands out (same goes for UNC’s offense) because of it’s overall strength and the stranglehold it puts on the opposition. Starting on the perimeter, Aaron Craft and William Buford are pesky defenders who give opposing guards fits. Craft is truly a defensive menace, and his ability to play hard-nosed defense for 40 minutes is a true rarity in modern day college basketball. Moving inside, Jared Sullinger is a super-physical post defender who will wear down other big men, and freshman Amir Williams is a terrific shot blocker and should compliment Sullinger well.
Biggest Weakness: Depth
Anybody that knows college basketball knows Sullinger, Craft, Buford, and Deshaun Thomas. But after that, the Buckeyes will need to rely on unproven freshmen and perennial bench players. Losing leaders such as Jon Diebler, Dallas Lauderdale, and David Lighty will hurt a good deal – it’s impossible to replace three seniors who all carved out their niches and excelled in their roles. Freshmen Shannon Scott, LaQuinton Ross, Sam Thompson, Trey McDonald, and Williams are all highly touted, but none of them come in with the abilities that last year’s freshmen had. All of them will get a shot to prove their worth, but the Big Ten is a physical and grinding conference that will require an adjustment period for finesse players such as Williams, Scott, and Thompson.
X-Factor
Jordan Sibert
A consensus top-50 recruit, Sibert was lost in the Year of Jared Sullinger. It also didn’t help that he saw limited minutes because of the sharpshooting Diebler and Buford. But Sibert should get a great chance to make an impact this season, and he has the tools to do so. If Sibert can excel early on, a backcourt of Craft, Sibert, and Buford can be lethal and a true terror for the other 11 Big Ten teams.
Overall: Like the Tar Heels, Ohio State has the luxury of sitting atop a weak conference. They will be tested early with games against Florida and Duke, but it will be interesting to see how their untested freshmen perform towards the end of the conference season. Four of their final five conference games are against the top Big Ten squads, including the always-tough Wisconsin Badgers. If they can win most of those, they will have a lot of momentum going into the conference tournament.
Kentucky Wildcats
Biggest Strength: Depth
Everybody talks about Terrence Jones and Anthony Davis as leading the Wildcats this season, but they seem to forget about the rest of the 9-man rotation that will be called upon to take this team back to the Final Four. Michael Gilchrist and Marquise Teague are top-10 recruits that will provide a huge scoring boost both beyond the arc and in transition. Darius Miller is a glue guy that has played a ton of minutes over the course of the last three seasons. And Eloy Vargas, Stacey Poole, Jon Hood, and Doron Lamb all had specific roles last season that were key to Kentucky’s tournament success. No other SEC team has the talent to compete with Kentucky – it is more of a question of if John Calipari can bring everybody together to play team defense and score the ball. And if history is any indication, that is a resounding “yes”.
Biggest Weakness: Toughness
All three former UK players that were drafted into the NBA last summer had an immense amount of toughness, both physically and mentally. Brandon Knight, DeAndre Liggins, and Josh Harrelson made UK a tough team, and that is now a question mark as the 2011-2012 season begins. Darius Miller and Doron Lamb will both be counted on to provide that toughness throughout the season; Miller is the seasoned veteran of the team, and Lamb was the one reliable player for Kentucky in their Final Four matchup with Connecticut. Terrence Jones, one of the most talented players in the nation, needs to expand his game and become a physical presence. His tendencies to float out to the perimeter and play the role of a guard was acceptable with Harrelson patrolling the paint last season, but Davis will need a strong counterpart to help in defending the post.
X-Factor: Doron Lamb
As mentioned before, Lamb had a great game against Connecticut in the Final Four last March. That flash of greatness must become the norm for the sophomore if he is going to hold off Teague for the starting shooting guard spot. While UK will not live and die with Lamb, the offense will run a lot more smoothly with him manning the 2-spot. He is the team’s greatest deep threat and, unlike Jones, appeared to understand and thrive in his role. If he and Miller can lead this team both on and off the court, the season will start much better than last season, when they struggled early.
Overall: If any one player falters or does not meet expectations, it won’t be a total loss for Kentucky because of the immense depth they possess. But with players like Lamb, Miller, and Vargas improving upon last season and freshmen Davis, Gilchrist, and Teague performing up to their top-10 abilities, UK will be a very, very difficult team to defeat. The SEC has some stellar and experienced teams, and they will all pose legitimate threats to the Wildcats. But if UK can gain momentum early and defeat teams like Florid and Vanderbilt, they will be in great shape for a lengthy postseason run.
Syracuse Orange
Biggest Strength: Leadership
Upperclassmen Scoop Jardine, Kris Joseph, and Brandon Triche lead the Orange through another season filled with both expectations and questions. Expectations are high because of the sheer amount of talent on this Orange roster. Jardine proved to be one of the best point guards in the conference as he averaged nearly 6 assists per game. Joseph showed a versatile skill set, hitting 3-pointers and leading the team in rebounding. And while Triche had a sophomore slump from beyond the arc, he is expected to return to form his junior year. Expectations are also high for sophomore big men Fab Melo and Baye Mousse Keita, even though both had disappointing freshmen seasons. And don’t forget freshmen Rakeem Christmas and Michael Carter-Williams. Christmas can play both post positions and anchor the center of the Syracuse 2-3 zone defense.
Biggest Weakness: Post Play
Christmas may see a lot of time at the center of the 2-3 zone out of necessity, however. Keita and Melo are huge question marks for this team, and their ability to score in the post is definitely a concern. Christmas may be the saving grace in this situation, but he does not have the size or shot blocking ability of the two sophomores. The 2-3 zone defense is only as good as the big man in the middle, and that remains the single biggest question mark for Jim Boeheim’s squad.
X-Factor: Fab Melo
He’s been the focal point of my entire Syracuse analysis, and he’s certainly the X-Factor, as well. Expectations were so high last season it seemed impossible for the former All-American to live up to the hype. Instead, he struggled mightily, and now he has legal problems on top of his poor freshman year performance. If Melo can put his past season behind him and start fresh, he can still become a cog in the middle for the Orange. But if he continues to struggle, look for the other young big men to get chances to shine. On a purely talent basis, Melo seems to have the most ability, but mentally, he is a step behind the rest of his teammates. The leadership of seniors Joseph and Jardine should help alleviate these problems, but that remains to be seen.
Overall: The amount of talent in Syracuse this year is not as great as you will find in places like Chapel Hill or Lexington, but the leadership and skill sets of those players returning pose fewer question marks than those other high-profile teams. If the largest question mark, Fab Melo, can become a strength, Syracuse will be one of the toughest outs in the postseason. The Big East is so stacked year-in and year-out that it is impossible to pick one team to dominate, but Syracuse has just as good a chance as any.

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CSF Podcast – Football Week 9

Week 9 – We recap Week 8′s upsets of Wisconsin and Oklahoma, talk about weed in LSU but there was no suspension (according to Les Miles), KSU president sells his school as “the story”, and Week 9 predictions.

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CSF Week 8 Recap

CSF breaks down a wild week of the week that was. Week 8 had its share of upsets and surprises. Check it out, as CSF takes a look at five key highlights.

Bye-bye BCS Championship: Two teams that were not only expected to win their conferences, but also have a shot at a BCS National Championship saw their hopes flash before their eyes last weekend.  Wisconsin–who needed a lot of help to get to a title game anyway, due to their weak out of conference schedule–lost on the last play of the game at Michigan State.  Sparty presented a defensive front that the Badgers hadn’t seen in their marquee match ups like South Dakota and UNLV didn’t quite have.

Meanwhile, the Oklahoma Sooners saw their hopes of a BCS title and the nation’s longest home winning streak (39 games) dash away at the hands of Tommy Tuberville’s Texas Tech squad.  Usually, when the Sooners lose a game they should easily win, it is because of poor QB play, but not this time.  Landry Jones was sharp, throwing for 412 yards and 5 TDs, but the Sooner defense was scorched by TT quarterback Seth Doege for five touchdowns of his own (4 passing, 1 rushing).  The Sooners will need a lot of help, including a win at Oklahoma State in December to sneak back into the BCS Championship.

Kansas State continues to roll: In the “Where did they come from” category, the Kansas State Wildcats improved to 7-0 last weekend as they play host to a pivotal match up this weekend against a thoroughly ticked off Oklahoma squad.  You can’t say enough about head coach Bill Snyer who has brought this program from the brink twice now.  How have the Wildcats come back from the depths of the FBS in such a short amount of time?  The answer…the running game–on both sides of the ball.  KSU ranks 19th in the nation in rushing offense at 213 yards per game, and they are 13th in rushing defense, holding opponents to just 93 yards a game.

Tajh Boyd getting some Heisman hype: Clemson keeps winning, and their quarterback continues to be the major reason why.  The sophomore QB has passed for 2,379 yards with a whopping 24 touchdown passes with only 3 interceptions.  Compare those numbers to Heisman front-runner Andrew Luck who has 1,888 yards and 20 TDs with 3 picks as well.  Luck has played one less game, but Boyd has 4 more TDs on the ground, compared to Luck’s one, and Clemson has faced a much more competitive schedule.  Luck, without question, belongs in New York at season’s end, but it’s time to give Boyd his due, as well.

A legitimate “Game of the Century” officially set: As expected Alabama and LSU rolled to huge victories last weekend, and each team has a bye weekend to prepare for the much anticipated Nov. 5 match up between these two powerhouses in Tuscaloosa.  The “Game of the Century” cliche is so overused in college football, but this one actually fits the bill.  Hope you like defense because this game has easily the best two defenses in the country.  Bama and LSU are ranked #1 and #3 in scoring defense and total defense.  Year to date, Bama is ranked #1 against the run, giving up just over 44 yards rushing a game.  LSU isn’t too shabby, either, as they rank #4 against the run with only 76 yards rushing per contest.  All eyes in the college football world will certainly be on this game, and the winner will be the clear-cut favorite to bring home the BCS Title.

Another Big 12 Little Brother is taking his ball and leaving: Texas A&M confirmed earlier this season that it will, indeed, make the move to the SEC, and last week, Mizzou laid all the necessary ground work to bolt for the best conference in college football as well.  If you’re in Columbia, don’t worry about cleaning up any ticker-taped parades.  The Tigers only won one–count it, one–Big 12 championship in any of their sports, and that did not come in football.  Had they been in the Big 12 South instead of the weak North division, they wouldn’t have even sniffed a shot at a Big 12 title.  In the end, the money the SEC brings is too much to turn away, but Mizzou will quickly find out that their mouths were bigger than their stomachs.  Competing in the SEC will likely bury them into obscurity much faster than it took head coach Gary Pinkel to get them into the top 25 in the first place.

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CSF Podcast – College Football Week 8

Recap of Week 7 picks and highlights, Mizzou seeks new conference, BCS standings are out and one team there could be some good showdowns for the top spot, and our Week 8 picks.

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CSF College Football Week 7 Recap

In the Week 7 edition of the CSF College Football Recap, we break down five key storylines from last weekend’s action.

Denard Robinson struggles in loss to arch rival: There is no questioning Robinson’s athleticm or his “wow” factor, but it is clear that he doesn’t work well in a pro-style system.  Michigan State took away the run for the most part, holding the dual-threat QB to 42 yards rushing.  More importantly, they forced Robinson to beat them with his arm…and that didn’t work out so well.  Contained in the pocket for most of the game, Robinson attempted 24 passes and only completed nine of them for 123 yards with a TD and an interception.  He is a highlight reel waiting to happen, but the Spartans proved last weekend that he can’t beat you through the air alone.

Ryan Broyles hits another milestone: The nation’s best wide receiver blew up against lowly Kansas to the tune of 13 catches for 217 yards and a pair of touchdowns.  The Oklahoma star wideout now has 326 catches in his stellar career, which is an FBS record.  On the year, Broyles has 60 catches (which is more than double the amount of receptions of the second leading receiver Kenny Stills, who has 27 catches) for 815 yards and 9 TDs.

Miami and FSU notch first conference wins: Who would have thought that the ‘Canes and the ‘Noles wouldn’t have ACC wins until mid-October?  Both storied programs finally got off the schnide last weekend, when Miami held off North Carolina 30-24 in Chapel Hill, and the Florida State actually held an opponent under 30 points in their 41-16 rout of Duke.  It was great quarterback play for each of the Florida schools that was the key to the wins.  Miami’s Jacory Harris passed for 267 yards and three TDs, and FSU’s EJ Manuel torched Duke for 239 yards passing with 2 TDs, and another 62 yards and 2 TD’s on the ground.

Russell Wilson adds to Heisman resume: In last weekend’s Indiana game the Badgers’ star quarterback did everything except park the cars and sell the popcorn in Wisconsin’s dominant 59-7 victory over the Hoosiers.  Wilson passed for 166 yards and a touchdown, rushed twice for 42 yards and caught 25-yard touchdown  pass from tailback Montee Ball on Saturday.  On the season, the senior QB is completing 74% of his passes with 14 TDs and only one pick.  He has rushed for 182 yards and two touchdowns and now has a TD reception to give Heisman voters something to think about.

South Carolina loses Marcus Lattimore: Just days after dismissing senior quarterback Stephen Garcia, the Gamecocks lost their best offensive weapon, sophomore running back Marcus Lattimore for the year with a knee injury.  Expect a lot of visor throws from head coach Steve Spurrier in the coming weeks without his top two offensive weapons from 2010.  The Gamecocks still have three SEC match ups, and without their bruising RB, they could easily lose four of their final five games (Tennessee, Arkansas, Florida and Clemson).  With a solid running game, they had a shot at all of those match ups, but the 2011 season looks like it won’t live up to last year’s great season in Columbia.

 

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